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VSTVistra Corp.
🇺🇸 US
Smart Money
43
131.18
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$49.2
Pahalı
Lothien Robustness Summary
77/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (77/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 8 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.1B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+273.8 arttı ($305M → $1.1B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+74.8 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+58.0 arttı ($4.0B → $6.3B). Talep güçlü.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 2.92x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı ($1.4B) kârın %119'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 7.13. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %45.9. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+15.0 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-46.6 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%53.4
VaR 95% ?
%5.62
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.91
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.14
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%40.9
07.11.2025 → 05.11.2026
Skewness ?
-0.34
Parametrik%5.62
Historik%5.31
Cornish-Fisher%5.80
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+273.8 artarak 1.1B USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+74.8
Hasılat çeyreklik %+58.0 büyüdü (6.3B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+27.7)
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %18.0
Toplam borç: 21.1B USD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 18.4B USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 3.35x
Cari oran: 1.16x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+530.6 arttı → 2.7B USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 2.1B USD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 1.4B USD
ROE: %18.1
ROA: %2.5
Toplam varlıklar %+5.7 büyüdü → 45.0B USD
Özkaynak %+15.0 arttı → 6.3B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.7B USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+208.5
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.8B USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+747.0
CAPEX: 747.0M USD (Hasılatın %11.8'i)
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-19.8 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 163.51 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%18.0
Net profit margin %18.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +10.4 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%45.9
ROE %45.9 — high return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%12.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %12.7'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.6x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 16.6x — sector median's (26.3x) %37 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
7.13x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 7.13x — sector median's %57 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.7x — sector median's (15.6x) %38 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.16x
Current ratio 1.16x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.2x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
3.35x
Debt/Equity 3.35x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
7.0x
Interest coverage 7.0x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+27.7
Revenue YoY %27.7 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+74.8
Net profit YoY %74.8 increased (2026/9) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 1.2B). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 332.3M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Good robustness (64/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Potential
-
Plus %29.0 expected value (172.77) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 241.56 | P/B target: 93.77 | EV/EBITDA target: 216.38 | DCF target: 189.38
Damodaran Valuation
-
Moderate Damodaran score (54/100). ROIC (%12.7) – WACC (%8.0) difference +4.6 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Moderate debt risk (56/100). Interest coverage ratio 7.0x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.2x — manageable.
Leverage: 38/100 | Debt Service: 79/100 | Quality: 84/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%12.7
ROIC (%12.7) slightly exceeds cost of capital (4.6 points).
WACC: %8.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
189.38
DCF modeli 189.38 target value produced — compared to current price %41.4 undervalued.
Current price: 133.92
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$49.2
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
16.6x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %37 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
7.13x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %57 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %38 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%12.7
vs %8.0 WACC
ROIC 4.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%13.1
vs %31.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %13.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (131.18), TRAMA-99 line's %19.8 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 131.18
TRAMA: 163.51
Difference: %-19.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
VST — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.