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TGTTarget Corporation

🇺🇸 US
Smart Money 61
161.78
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$92.4
Pahalı
Lothien Robustness Summary
78/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (78/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.9B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+140.3 arttı ($781M → $1.9B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+100.7 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %29.0 → %33.7 (+4.7 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 0.74x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı ($2.4B) kârın %130'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+70.2 arttı ($2.0B → $3.3B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 14.2. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 72/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-22.3 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Method How the scores are computed · Scorecard
Data date date not measured
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%31.5
VaR 95% ?
%3.02
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.37
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.75
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%12.9
24.08.2026 → 27.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.12
Parametrik%3.02
Historik%3.08
Cornish-Fisher%2.94
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/9
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+6.8 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 151.50 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %7.1
Net profit margin %7.1 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +4.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %15.5
ROE %15.5 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %12.6
EBITDA margin %12.6 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %33.7
Gross profit per revenue %33.7. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %4.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %4.1'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 14.2x Sector: 26.3x
F/K 14.2x — sector median's (26.3x) %46 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio 4.22x Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 4.22x — sector median (4.55x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA 9.6x Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.6x — sector median's (15.6x) %39 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 0.99x
Current ratio 0.99x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity 1.05x
Debt/Equity 1.05x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 21.6x
Interest coverage 21.6x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+5.3
Revenue YoY %5.3 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+100.7
Net profit YoY %100.7 increased (2026/7) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Potential
-
Plus %41.8 expected value (235.20) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 298.90 | P/B target: 193.41 | EV/EBITDA target: 270.93 | DCF target: 262.74
Damodaran Valuation
-
Moderate Damodaran score (60/100). ROIC (%14.8) – WACC (%8.2) difference +6.5 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Moderate debt risk (69/100). Interest coverage ratio 21.6x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 2.0x — manageable.
Leverage: 74/100 | Debt Service: 75/100 | Quality: 86/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%14.8
ROIC (%14.8) cost of capital 6.5 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %8.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
262.74
DCF modeli 262.74 target value produced — compared to current price %58.4 undervalued.
Current price: 165.90
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$92.4
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
14.2x vs 26.3x
Sector median's %46 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
4.22x vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %7 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.6x vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %39 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%14.8 vs %8.2 WACC
ROIC 6.5 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.1 vs %8.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (161.78), TRAMA-99 line's %6.8 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 161.78
TRAMA: 151.50
Difference: %+6.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
▲ içeriden alım · ▼ içeriden satım · ★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) · ■ 13D aktivist · ■ 13G pasif — SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
Kurumsal Holdings — 13F (çeyreklik) ?

İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı

Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar

TGT — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.