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SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.
🇺🇸 US
Smart Money
27
27.79
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$41.0
Ucuz
Lothien Robustness Summary
90/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (90/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 10 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.6B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+35.3 arttı ($1.2B → $1.6B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+847.3 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
5 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 5 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+79.4 arttı ($11.1B → $19.9B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+297.5 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %17.5 → %12.7 (-4.7 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 3.02x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif ($1.6B) ama FCF negatif (-$476M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+61.5 arttı ($1.6B → $2.5B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 5.2. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 85/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-47.4 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%92.8
VaR 95% ?
%9.58
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%13.56
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%12.17
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%52.5
02.06.2026 → 20.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.35
Parametrik%9.58
Historik%7.63
Cornish-Fisher%9.33
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+35.3 artarak 1.6B USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+847.3
Hasılat çeyreklik %+79.4 büyüdü (19.9B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+297.5)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %12.7
Brüt marj değişimi: %-4.7 puan
Net kâr marjı: %8.0
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+61.5 büyüdü (2.5B USD)
FAVÖK marjı: %12.7
Cari oran güçlü: 3.02x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 6.9B USD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -434.0M USD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -475.6M USD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE: %9.9
ROA: %4.5
Toplam varlıklar %+19.3 büyüdü → 35.7B USD
Özkaynak %+11.0 arttı → 16.1B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 2.1B USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+38.7
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 22.4B USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+8.7
CAPEX: 41.6M USD (Hasılatın %0.2'i)
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-17.5 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 33.69 USD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %94'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%8.0
Net profit margin %8.0 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -2.6 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%23.9
ROE %23.9 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%12.7
EBITDA margin %12.7 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%12.7
Gross profit per revenue %12.7. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-12.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-12.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.2x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 5.2x — sector median's (26.3x) %80 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
1.17x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 1.17x — sector median's (4.55x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 6.1x — sector median's (15.6x) %61 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.02x
Current ratio 3.02x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.0x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.57x
Debt/Equity 0.57x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
28.1x
Interest coverage 28.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+297.5
Revenue YoY %297.5 grew (2026/9) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+847.3
Net profit YoY %847.3 increased (2026/9) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 728.9M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 295.2M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Very strong robustness score (85/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Potential
-
Plus %141.5 expected value (69.08) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 85.80 | P/B target: 85.80 | EV/EBITDA target: 72.89 | DCF target: 85.80
Damodaran Valuation
-
Strong Damodaran valuation (85/100). ROIC (%20.3) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Very Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Low debt risk (85/100). Interest coverage ratio 28.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.0x — manageable.
Leverage: 74/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 76/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%20.3
ROIC (%20.3) cost of capital 13.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %7.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
158.53
DCF modeli 158.53 target value produced — compared to current price %454.3 undervalued.
Current price: 28.60
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
$41.0
Graham value ($41.0) current price %43.4 above — attractive for value investing.
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
5.2x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %80 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.17x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %74 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %61 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%20.3
vs %7.3 WACC
ROIC 13.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.8
vs %5.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (27.79), TRAMA-99 line's %17.5 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 27.79
TRAMA: 33.69
Difference: %-17.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
SMCI — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.