SCA_BSvenska Cellulosa (SCA)

NORDIC
120.05
EUR
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
42/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
31/100
Dalio Risk ?
54/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
€9.5
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Lothien Robustness Summary
18/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (18/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 8 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte €46M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+37.6 arttı (€34M → €46M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-51.9 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-4.2 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %63.4 → %72.6 (+9.2 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 1.73x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+37503.3 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 9.38. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 201.9. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %1.4. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Mevsimsel Toparlanma, Ama Trend Bozuk
Çeyreklik artış (%+37.6) ama yıllık bazda düşüş (%-51.9). Mevsimsel toparlanma var ama uzun vadeli trend zayıf.

Data date 2026-11-10 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-11-10
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%20.6
VaR 95% ?
%2.14
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.02
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.97
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%23.7
11.11.2025 → 08.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.01
Parametrik%2.14
Historik%2.19
Cornish-Fisher%2.09
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-26.9%
ROIC ?
1.2%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/9
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+0.7
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 119.24 EUR
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %10.1
Net profit margin %10.1 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +2.1 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %1.4
ROE %1.4 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %23.9
EBITDA margin %23.9 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin %72.6
Gross profit per revenue %72.6. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %7.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %7.7'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 100.0x Sector: 82.5x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (82.5x) %21 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 9.38x Sector: 10.09x
PD/DD 9.38x — sector median (10.09x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.24x
Current ratio 1.24x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 31.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 31.4x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 1.73x
Debt/Equity 1.73x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-4.2
Revenue YoY %-4.2 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-51.9
Net profit YoY %-51.9 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
42/100
Moderate robustness (42/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-26.9%
Minus %26.9 expected value (87.80) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %59.
Components: PE target: 30.01 | P/B target: 129.92 | EV/EBITDA target: 43.29
Damodaran Valuation
31/100
Low Damodaran score (31/100). ROIC (%1.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
54/100
Moderate debt risk (54/100). Debt/EBITDA 31.4x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 28/100 | Debt Service: 62/100 | Quality: 83/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.2
ROIC (%1.2) cost of capital (8.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.6
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
€9.5
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x vs 82.5x
Sector median's %21 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
9.38x vs 10.09x
Compared to sector %7 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
201.9x vs 72.8x
Compared to sector %177 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.2 vs %8.6 WACC
ROIC 7.4 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%12.3 vs %27.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %12.3
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (120.05), TRAMA-99 line (119.24) at close levels (%+0.7). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 120.05
TRAMA: 119.24
Difference: %+0.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
SCA_B — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.