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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
42/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
28/100
Dalio Risk ?
66/100
Piotroski ?
N/A
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham ?
$2.4
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
18/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (18/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 0
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -$1M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-109.2 geriledi ($12M → -$1M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-122.9 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %66.7 → %60.4 (-6.2 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Borç Azalıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %-69.2 düştü. Bilanço güçleniyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+321.3 arttı ($25M → $105M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 37.5. Pahalı değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-0.2. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+33.3 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+324.2 artabilir (-$1M → $3M).
Data date 2026-11-10 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-11-10
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
72 days
Annual Volatility ?
%71.3
VaR 95% ?
%6.95
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.01
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.33
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%28.5
03.08.2026 → 30.09.2026
Skewness ?
0.17
Parametrik%6.95
Historik%6.77
Cornish-Fisher%6.74
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-2.5%
ROIC ?
3.2%
DCF Value ?
7.64
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %-109.2 düşerek -1.1M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-122.9 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+11.8 büyüdü (173.6M USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+19.1)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %60.4
Brüt marj değişimi: %-6.2 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-0.7 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+321.3 büyüdü (104.9M USD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %60.4
Toplam borç %-69.2 azaldı → 134.0M USD
Net borç: 36.2M USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.27x
Cari oran: 1.76x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+27.6 arttı → 97.7M USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 44.7M USD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 38.0M USD
ROE negatif: %-0.2 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-0.1
Toplam varlıklar: 1.0B USD (%+2.3)
Özkaynak %+33.3 arttı → 502.4M USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 7.4M USD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 98.1M USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+27.2
CAPEX: 6.7M USD (Hasılatın %3.9'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %+0.0
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 19.34 USD
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %22
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-0.7
Net profit margin %-0.7 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -8.6 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-0.2
ROE %-0.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%60.4
EBITDA margin %60.4 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%60.4
Gross profit per revenue %60.4. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%6.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %6.0'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
2.33x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 2.33x — sector median's (4.55x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
37.5x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 37.5x — sector median's (15.6x) %140 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.76x
Current ratio 1.76x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.2x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
0.27x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
2.4x
Interest coverage 2.4x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+19.1
Revenue YoY %19.1 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-122.9
Net profit YoY %-122.9 declined (2026/9) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
42/100
Moderate robustness (42/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-2.5%
Minus %2.5 expected value (19.30) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 38.90 | EV/EBITDA target: 8.25 | DCF target: 7.64
Damodaran Valuation
28/100
Low Damodaran score (28/100). ROIC (%3.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
66/100
Moderate debt risk (66/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.4x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 4.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 71/100 | Debt Service: 72/100 | Quality: 36/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%3.2
ROIC (%3.2) cost of capital (11.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
7.64
DCF (7.64) current price %61.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 19.79
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
$2.4
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
2.33x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %49 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
37.5x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %140 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%3.2
vs %11.8 WACC
ROIC 8.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%0.7
vs %5.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %0.7
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (19.34), TRAMA-99 line (19.34) at close levels (%+0.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 19.34
TRAMA: 19.34
Difference: %+0.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
REF — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.