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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
54/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
31/100
Dalio Risk ?
34/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.6161 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
59%
Lothien Robustness Summary
67/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (67/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $20M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+477.9 arttı (-$5M → $20M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+261.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %38.2 → %32.5 (-5.7 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %19.6. Her 100$ satıştan 20$ kâr kalıyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+32.9 arttı ($25M → $33M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-1.2. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Özkaynak Eriyor
Özkaynak çeyreklik %-12.9 düştü. Zarar veya temettü ile sermaye eriyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-109.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-11-10 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-11-10
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
141 days
Annual Volatility ?
%35.8
VaR 95% ?
%3.49
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.03
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.28
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%14.1
20.08.2026 → 14.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.57
Parametrik%3.49
Historik%2.88
Cornish-Fisher%3.00
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+33.2%
ROIC ?
2.0%
DCF Value ?
0.03
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+477.9 artarak 20.2M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+261.2
Hasılat çeyreklik %+17.7 büyüdü (103.1M USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+19.8)
Brüt kâr marjı: %32.5
Brüt marj değişimi: %-5.7 puan
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %19.6
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+32.9 büyüdü (33.5M USD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %32.5
Nakit %-49.1 azaldı → 125.1M USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 15.7M USD
ROE düşük: %2.2
ROA düşük: %1.1
Toplam varlıklar: 1.9B USD (%-3.1)
Özkaynak %-12.9 azaldı → 918.2M USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 31.8M USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+253.6
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+0.1
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 15.74 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%19.6
Net profit margin %19.6 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +25.8 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-1.2
ROE %-1.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%32.5
EBITDA margin %32.5 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%32.5
Gross profit per revenue %32.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%6.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %6.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
1.23x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 1.23x — sector median's (4.55x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 13.3x — sector median (15.6x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
5.71x
Current ratio 5.71x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 10.1x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.94x
Debt/Equity 0.94x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
1.5x
Interest coverage 1.5x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+19.8
Revenue YoY %19.8 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+261.2
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/9). Significant improvement.
Seasonality Analysis
Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -2.9M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit -47.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
54/100
Moderate robustness (54/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+33.2%
Plus %33.2 expected value (20.68) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %59.
Components: P/B target: 46.59 | EV/EBITDA target: 18.25 | DCF target: 3.88
Damodaran Valuation
31/100
Low Damodaran score (31/100). ROIC (%2.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
34/100
High debt risk (34/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.5x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 10.1x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 38/100 | Debt Service: 38/100 | Quality: 39/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%2.0
ROIC (%2.0) cost of capital (8.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
0.03
DCF (0.03) current price %99.8 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 15.53
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.6161 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.23x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %73 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %15 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.0
vs %8.7 WACC
ROIC 6.7 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-3.4
vs %23.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-3.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (15.75), TRAMA-99 line (15.74) at close levels (%+0.1). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 15.75
TRAMA: 15.74
Difference: %+0.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
NHP — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.