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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
66/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
56/100
Dalio Risk ?
60/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
$15.3
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
24/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (24/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 2
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -$18M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-129.8 geriledi ($61M → -$18M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-134.1 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+30.5 arttı ($862M → $1.1B). Talep güçlü.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %44.9 → %48.2 (+3.3 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.11x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-36.9 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 11.3. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+536.9 artabilir (-$18M → $80M).
Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-22
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%43.2
VaR 95% ?
%4.48
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.33
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.33
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%42.9
08.01.2026 → 30.09.2026
Skewness ?
-1.69
Parametrik%4.48
Historik%3.06
Cornish-Fisher%3.70
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+52.6%
ROIC ?
6.4%
DCF Value ?
34.22
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-129.8 düşerek -18.2M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-134.1 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+30.5 büyüdü (1.1B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+10.5)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %48.2
Brüt marj değişimi: %+3.3 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-1.6 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-36.9 düştü (65.7M USD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %5.8
Toplam borç: 2.7B USD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 2.2B USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.37x
Cari oran: 1.90x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-39.5 azaldı → 523.9M USD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -179.2M USD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -239.9M USD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-0.9 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-0.3
Toplam varlıklar: 6.4B USD (%+0.4)
Özkaynak %-5.1 azaldı → 2.0B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 10.9M USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+113.9
Faiz karşılama oranı: 2.1x (Faiz: 31.8M USD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 285.7M USD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.2B USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-9.2
CAPEX: 60.7M USD (Hasılatın %5.4'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+8.9 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 15.55 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-1.6
Net profit margin %-1.6 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -8.7 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%20.8
ROE %20.8 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%5.8
EBITDA margin %5.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%48.2
Gross profit per revenue %48.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%7.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %7.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.3x
Sector: 27.9x
F/K 11.3x — sector median's (27.9x) %60 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
2.42x
Sector: 4.45x
PD/DD 2.42x — sector median's (4.45x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
Sector: 14.8x
EV/EBITDA 8.8x — sector median's (14.8x) %41 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.90x
Current ratio 1.90x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.4x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
1.37x
Debt/Equity 1.37x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.5x
Interest coverage 6.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.5
Revenue YoY %10.5 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-134.1
Net profit YoY %-134.1 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 325.4M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -2.5M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
66/100
Good robustness (66/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+52.6%
Plus %52.6 expected value (25.81) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 22.36 | P/B target: 32.37 | EV/EBITDA target: 28.54 | DCF target: 34.22
Damodaran Valuation
56/100
Moderate Damodaran score (56/100). ROIC (%6.4) – WACC (%8.4) difference -1.9 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
60/100
Moderate debt risk (60/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 43/100 | Debt Service: 98/100 | Quality: 66/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%6.4
ROIC (%6.4) cost of capital (8.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
34.22
DCF modeli 34.22 target value produced — compared to current price %102.4 undervalued.
Current price: 16.91
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$15.3
Graham value ($15.3) near current price (%-9.5). In fair price zone.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.3x
vs 27.9x
Sector median's %60 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.42x
vs 4.45x
Compared to sector %46 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
vs 14.8x
Compared to sector %41 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%6.4
vs %8.4 WACC
ROIC 1.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%7.8
vs %14.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %7.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (16.94), TRAMA-99 line's %8.9 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 16.94
TRAMA: 15.55
Difference: %+8.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
MAT — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.