TR EN AR RU KK

KBC

İmalat
NORDIC
39.20
EUR
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
46/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
61/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
€1.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Lothien Robustness Summary
32/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (32/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte €2M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+1.9). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-48.6 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 2.14x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (€6M) kârın %288'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 45.54. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 76.1. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-21.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-22 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Method How the scores are computed · Scorecard
Data date 2026-10-22
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%55.0
VaR 95% ?
%5.67
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.04
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.20
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%21.9
11.05.2026 → 24.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.31
Parametrik%5.67
Historik%5.15
Cornish-Fisher%5.16
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-20.4%
ROIC ?
7.4%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (2.0M EUR, %+1.9)
Yıllık net kâr %-48.6 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %+10.0 büyüdü (65.5M EUR)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+6.3)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %52.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %-1.4 puan
Net kâr marjı düşük: %3.1
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-12.3 düştü (8.0M EUR)
FAVÖK marjı: %12.2
Toplam borç: 115.5M EUR
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 102.9M EUR
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 2.39x
Cari oran: 1.77x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-30.6 azaldı → 12.5M EUR
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 8.9M EUR
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 5.9M EUR
ROE düşük: %4.2
ROA düşük: %0.9
Toplam varlıklar %+5.2 büyüdü → 228.1M EUR
Özkaynak %-8.1 azaldı → 48.2M EUR
İşletme kârı pozitif: 4.2M EUR
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+15.0
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 4.0x (Faiz: 2.0M EUR)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 56.0M EUR
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 47.9M EUR
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-10.9
CAPEX: 3.0M EUR (Hasılatın %4.6'i)
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-10.3 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 43.72 EUR
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %3.1
Net profit margin %3.1 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -0.2 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %8.9
ROE %8.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %12.2
EBITDA margin %12.2 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %52.3
Gross profit per revenue %52.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %1.6
TTM Free Cash Flow is %1.6'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 100.0x Sector: 83.2x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (83.2x) %20 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 45.54x Sector: 9.77x
PD/DD 45.54x — sector median's %366 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 76.1x Sector: 129.7x
EV/EBITDA 76.1x — sector median's (129.7x) %41 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.77x
Current ratio 1.77x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.8x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.8x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 2.39x
Debt/Equity 2.39x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage 4.3x
Interest coverage 4.3x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+6.3
Revenue YoY %6.3 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-48.6
Net profit YoY %-48.6 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
46/100
Moderate robustness (46/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-20.4%
Minus %20.4 expected value (31.20) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %69.
Components: PE target: 9.80 | P/B target: 9.80 | EV/EBITDA target: 66.79
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%7.4) – WACC (%10.7) difference -3.3 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
61/100
Moderate debt risk (61/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.3x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 3.8x — manageable.
Leverage: 46/100 | Debt Service: 84/100 | Quality: 57/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%7.4
ROIC (%7.4) cost of capital (10.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.7
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
€1.2
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x vs 83.2x
Sector median's %20 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
45.54x vs 9.77x
Compared to sector %366 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
76.1x vs 129.7x
Compared to sector %41 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%7.4 vs %10.7 WACC
ROIC 3.3 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.8 vs %12.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (39.20), TRAMA-99 line's %10.3 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 39.20
TRAMA: 43.72
Difference: %-10.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
KBC — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.