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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
44/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
25/100
Dalio Risk ?
47/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Previous year current ratio missing (C6); gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1747 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Lothien Robustness Summary
47/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (47/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 6 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $10M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-73.0 geriledi ($37M → $10M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+135.3 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 2.81x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 37.8. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %0.6. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-73.0) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+135.3). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.
Özkaynak Eriyor
Özkaynak çeyreklik %-43.6 düştü. Zarar veya temettü ile sermaye eriyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-42.3 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-11-10 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-11-10
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
73 days
Annual Volatility ?
%53.9
VaR 95% ?
%5.66
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.97
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.57
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%34.2
03.08.2026 → 05.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.55
Parametrik%5.66
Historik%5.00
Cornish-Fisher%5.12
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-1.4%
ROIC ?
1.7%
DCF Value ?
0.38
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %-73.0 düşerek 10.0M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+135.3
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (209.0M USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+17.2)
Net kâr marjı düşük: %4.8
Toplam borç %-12.5 azaldı → 1.8B USD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 1.5B USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.56x
Cari oran güçlü: 2.81x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %+27.7 arttı → 295.0M USD
ROE düşük: %0.3
ROA düşük: %0.1
Toplam varlıklar: 8.5B USD (%+3.8)
Özkaynak %-43.6 azaldı → 3.3B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 48.0M USD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 242.0M USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+68.1
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %+0.0
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 19.61 USD
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %4
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.8
Net profit margin %4.8 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -13.0 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%0.6
ROE %0.6 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-1.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-1.3'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (26.3x) %280 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
1.38x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 1.38x — sector median's (4.55x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
37.8x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 37.8x — sector median's (15.6x) %142 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.81x
Current ratio 2.81x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
11.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 11.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.56x
Debt/Equity 0.56x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
1.8x
Interest coverage 1.8x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+17.2
Revenue YoY %17.2 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+135.3
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/9). Significant improvement.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 48.0M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -24.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
44/100
Moderate robustness (44/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-1.4%
Minus %1.4 expected value (19.33) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 4.90 | P/B target: 58.83 | EV/EBITDA target: 8.12 | DCF target: 4.90
Damodaran Valuation
25/100
Low Damodaran score (25/100). ROIC (%1.7) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
47/100
High debt risk (47/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.8x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 11.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 43/100 | Debt Service: 72/100 | Quality: 43/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.7
ROIC (%1.7) cost of capital (9.2%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %9.2
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
0.38
DCF (0.38) current price %98.1 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 19.61
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.1747 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %280 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.38x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %70 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
37.8x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %142 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.7
vs %9.2 WACC
ROIC 7.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-0.3
vs %20.7 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-0.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (19.61), TRAMA-99 line (19.61) at close levels (%+0.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 19.61
TRAMA: 19.61
Difference: %+0.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
JMKE — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.