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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
71/100
Very Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
66/100
Dalio Risk ?
69/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$7.6
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
74%
Lothien Robustness Summary
54/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (54/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $5M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.1). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-69.2 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
5 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 5 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-21.2 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 2.84x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif ($5M) ama FCF negatif (-$8M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.60. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 2.1. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-4.4. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 71/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-53.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-11-10 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-11-10
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
155 days
Annual Volatility ?
%60.8
VaR 95% ?
%6.62
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.23
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.71
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%56.4
22.05.2026 → 10.11.2026
Skewness ?
-1.25
Parametrik%6.62
Historik%6.38
Cornish-Fisher%7.39
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+148.0%
ROIC ?
11.7%
DCF Value ?
101.04
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (5.0M USD, %+0.1)
Yıllık net kâr %-69.2 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (171.1M USD)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-21.2)
Net kâr marjı düşük: %2.9
Toplam borç %-19.4 azaldı → 197.5M USD
Net borç: 107.4M USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.91x
Cari oran güçlü: 2.84x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %-24.8 azaldı → 90.1M USD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -6.2M USD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -7.9M USD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %2.3
ROA düşük: %0.4
Toplam varlıklar: 1.4B USD (%+2.7)
Özkaynak: 216.8M USD (%+3.1)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 21.8M USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+12518.5
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 438.3M USD
CAPEX: 1.7M USD (Hasılatın %1.0'i)
Son 3 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-46.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 19.78 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%2.9
Net profit margin %2.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -0.0 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-4.4
ROE %-4.4 — negative return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%8.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %8.7'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.60x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 0.60x — sector median's (4.55x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
2.1x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 2.1x — sector median's (15.6x) %86 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.84x
Current ratio 2.84x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.8x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.8x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.91x
Debt/Equity 0.91x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
4.7x
Interest coverage 4.7x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-21.2
Revenue YoY %-21.2 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-69.2
Net profit YoY %-69.2 declined (2026/9) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
71/100
Very strong robustness score (71/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+148.0%
Plus %148.0 expected value (26.73) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %74.
Components: P/B target: 32.34 | EV/EBITDA target: 32.34 | DCF target: 32.34
Damodaran Valuation
66/100
Moderate Damodaran score (66/100). ROIC (%11.7) – WACC (%9.8) difference +1.9 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
69/100
Moderate debt risk (69/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.7x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 1.8x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 77/100 | Debt Service: 92/100 | Quality: 45/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%11.7
ROIC (%11.7) slightly exceeds cost of capital (1.9 points).
WACC: %9.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
101.04
DCF modeli 101.04 target value produced — compared to current price %837.3 undervalued.
Current price: 10.78
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$7.6
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.60x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %87 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
2.1x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %86 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.7
vs %9.8 WACC
ROIC 1.9 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-1.3
vs %15.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-1.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (10.57), TRAMA-99 line's %46.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 10.57
TRAMA: 19.78
Difference: %-46.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
HMH — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.