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GEVGE Vernova Inc.
🇺🇸 US
Smart Money
38
797.04
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$190.1
Pahalı
Lothien Robustness Summary
86/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (86/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 9 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.3B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+93.3 arttı ($668M → $1.3B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+185.6 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %21.3 → %24.6 (+3.3 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı ($5.4B) kârın %419'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+189.8 arttı ($1.1B → $3.1B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 19.29. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 73.0. Pahalı değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %88.8. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+125.0 artabilir ($1.3B → $2.9B).
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%55.5
VaR 95% ?
%5.56
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.94
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.82
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%34.4
30.06.2026 → 05.11.2026
Skewness ?
0.16
Parametrik%5.56
Historik%5.61
Cornish-Fisher%5.23
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+93.3 artarak 1.3B USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+185.6
Hasılat çeyreklik %+13.9 büyüdü (12.6B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+26.8)
Brüt kâr marjı: %24.6
Brüt marj değişimi: %+3.3 puan
Net kâr marjı: %10.2
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+189.8 büyüdü (3.1B USD)
FAVÖK marjı: %24.6
Cari oran < 1: 0.83x — likidite riski
Nakit %+27.8 arttı → 16.8B USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 6.1B USD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 5.4B USD
ROE: %11.3
ROA düşük: %1.5
Toplam varlıklar %+6.7 büyüdü → 86.2B USD
Özkaynak: 11.4B USD (%-4.8)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.4B USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+112.8
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -10.8B USD — kısa vadeli baskı
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-28.5
CAPEX: 647.0M USD (Hasılatın %5.1'i)
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-19.0 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 983.86 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%10.2
Net profit margin %10.2 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +4.2 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%88.8
ROE %88.8 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%24.6
EBITDA margin %24.6 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%24.6
Gross profit per revenue %24.6. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%38.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %38.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.2x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 21.2x — sector median (26.3x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
19.29x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 19.29x — sector median's %324 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
73.0x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 73.0x — sector median's (15.6x) %367 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.83x
Current ratio 0.83x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.9x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.9x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
16.4x
Interest coverage 16.4x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+26.8
Revenue YoY %26.8 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+185.6
Net profit YoY %185.6 increased (2026/9) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 2.5B). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 549.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Potential
-
Minus %13.8 expected value (715.08) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 954.91 | P/B target: 245.70 | EV/EBITDA target: 207.34 | DCF target: 1386.30
Damodaran Valuation
-
Moderate Damodaran score (52/100). ROIC (%14.0) – WACC (%9.8) difference +4.2 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Low debt risk (82/100). Interest coverage ratio 16.4x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.9x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 91/100 | Debt Service: 71/100 | Quality: 72/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%14.0
ROIC (%14.0) slightly exceeds cost of capital (4.2 points).
WACC: %9.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
1386.30
DCF modeli 1386.30 target value produced — compared to current price %67.2 undervalued.
Current price: 829.34
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$190.1
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
21.2x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %19 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
19.29x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %324 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
73.0x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %367 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%14.0
vs %9.8 WACC
ROIC 4.2 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%23.5
vs %6.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %23.5
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (797.04), TRAMA-99 line's %19.0 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 797.04
TRAMA: 983.86
Difference: %-19.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
GEV — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.