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EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.
🇺🇸 US
Smart Money
28
253.77
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$74.6
Pahalı
Lothien Robustness Summary
64/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (64/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 3
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.0B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+17.3). İstikrarlı seyir.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %20.9. Her 100$ satıştan 21$ kâr kalıyor.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.77x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif ($1.0B) ama FCF negatif (-$1.4B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 14.1. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 17.96. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %147.3. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 75/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+36.6 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-36.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%51.4
VaR 95% ?
%5.28
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.49
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.80
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%37.4
08.01.2026 → 23.02.2026
Skewness ?
-0.42
Parametrik%5.28
Historik%4.69
Cornish-Fisher%5.40
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+17.3 artarak 1.0B USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%+7.4)
Hasılat çeyreklik %+14.4 büyüdü (4.9B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+11.9)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %91.5
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %20.9
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+20.8 büyüdü (1.6B USD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %32.2
Toplam borç: 5.7B USD
Net borç: 646.0M USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 3.44x
Cari oran < 1: 0.77x — likidite riski
Nakit %-24.6 azaldı → 5.0B USD
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -1.2B USD
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -1.4B USD — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE yüksek: %62.3 — özkaynak verimli kullanılıyor
ROA: %3.8
Toplam varlıklar %-7.6 küçüldü → 26.9B USD
Özkaynak %+36.6 arttı → 1.7B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.4B USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+67.8
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 17.3x (Faiz: 92.0M USD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 118.6M USD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -4.2B USD — kısa vadeli baskı
CAPEX: 242.0M USD (Hasılatın %4.9'i)
Son 2 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-3.7
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 263.60 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%20.9
Net profit margin %20.9 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +0.5 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%147.3
ROE %147.3 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%32.2
EBITDA margin %32.2 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%91.5
Gross profit per revenue %91.5. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%23.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %23.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.1x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 14.1x — sector median's (26.3x) %46 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
17.96x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 17.96x — sector median's %295 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 7.8x — sector median's (15.6x) %50 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.77x
Current ratio 0.77x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
3.44x
Debt/Equity 3.44x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
18.8x
Interest coverage 18.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+11.9
Revenue YoY %11.9 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+7.4
Net profit YoY %7.4 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 891.0M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -103.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Very strong robustness score (75/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Potential
-
Plus %64.9 expected value (427.36) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 586.45 | P/B target: 91.55 | EV/EBITDA target: 516.44 | DCF target: 777.48
Damodaran Valuation
-
Strong Damodaran valuation (76/100). ROIC (%103.5) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Moderate debt risk (63/100). Interest coverage ratio 18.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.5x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 48/100 | Debt Service: 69/100 | Quality: 77/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%103.5
ROIC (%103.5) cost of capital 94.4 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %9.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
955.28
DCF modeli 955.28 target value produced — compared to current price %268.6 undervalued.
Current price: 259.16
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$74.6
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
14.1x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %46 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
17.96x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %295 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %50 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%103.5
vs %9.1 WACC
ROIC 94.4 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%13.0
vs %23.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %13.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (253.77), TRAMA-99 line (263.60) at close levels (%-3.7). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 253.77
TRAMA: 263.60
Difference: %-3.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
EXPE — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.