TR EN AR RU KK

ERIC_BEricsson

Technology
NORDIC
103.45
EUR
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
49/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
44/100
Dalio Risk ?
84/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
€6.4
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
61/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (61/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 3
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte €358M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+355.6 arttı (€79M → €358M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-6.1 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından €196M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Düşük Nakit Dönüşümü
FCF/Kâr oranı sadece %23. Kâr kâğıt üzerinde, nakte dönmüyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+119.6 arttı (€339M → €744M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 37.17. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 89.4. Pahalı değerleme.
Mevsimsel Toparlanma, Ama Trend Bozuk
Çeyreklik artış (%+355.6) ama yıllık bazda düşüş (%-11.4). Mevsimsel toparlanma var ama uzun vadeli trend zayıf.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+125.2 artabilir (€358M → €806M).

Data date 2026-11-11 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Method How the scores are computed · Scorecard
Data date 2026-11-11
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%31.1
VaR 95% ?
%3.17
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.50
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.50
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%28.2
02.06.2026 → 23.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.38
Parametrik%3.17
Historik%2.58
Cornish-Fisher%2.98
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-36.4%
ROIC ?
24.9%
DCF Value ?
13.69
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/9
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+5.3 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 98.28 EUR
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %7.7
Net profit margin %7.7 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +5.9 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %13.1
ROE %13.1 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %16.0
EBITDA margin %16.0 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin %45.8
Gross profit per revenue %45.8. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %13.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %13.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 100.0x Sector: 83.0x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (83.0x) %20 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 37.17x Sector: 10.11x
PD/DD 37.17x — sector median's %268 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 89.4x Sector: 76.7x
EV/EBITDA 89.4x — sector median's (76.7x) %17 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.12x
Current ratio 1.12x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.9x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.9x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.38x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 22.8x
Interest coverage 22.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-6.1
Revenue YoY %-6.1 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-11.4
Net profit YoY %-11.4 declined — profitability under pressure.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
49/100
Moderate robustness (49/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-36.4%
Minus %36.4 expected value (65.77) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 50.20 | P/B target: 30.60 | EV/EBITDA target: 88.72 | DCF target: 25.86
Damodaran Valuation
44/100
Low Damodaran score (44/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
84/100
Low debt risk (84/100). Interest coverage ratio 22.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.9x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 81/100 | Debt Service: 78/100 | Quality: 81/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%24.9
ROIC (%24.9) cost of capital 14.3 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %10.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
13.69
DCF (13.69) current price %86.8 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 103.45
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
€6.4
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x vs 83.0x
Sector median's %20 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
37.17x vs 10.11x
Compared to sector %268 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
89.4x vs 76.7x
Compared to sector %17 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%24.9 vs %10.5 WACC
ROIC 14.3 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%10.8 vs %19.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %10.8
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (103.45), TRAMA-99 line's %5.3 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 103.45
TRAMA: 98.28
Difference: %+5.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
ERIC_B — Participation Finance Compliance
Loading…
The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.