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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
36/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
23/100
Dalio Risk ?
70/100
Piotroski ?
1/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current period current ratio missing (C6); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
28/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (28/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ₹319M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-55.9 geriledi (₹724M → ₹319M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-65.0 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %8.6 → %5.5 (-3.1 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %1.1. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-36.8 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 79.8. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+47.3 artabilir (₹319M → ₹470M).
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%30.9
VaR 95% ?
%3.28
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.60
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.03
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%28.9
10.07.2026 → 23.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.03
Parametrik%3.28
Historik%2.99
Cornish-Fisher%3.19
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-26.9%
ROIC ?
0.0%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-55.9 düşerek 319.1M INR oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-65.0 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (29.3B INR)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+27.8)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %5.5
Brüt marj değişimi: %-3.1 puan
Net kâr marjı düşük: %1.1
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-36.8 düştü (640.4M INR)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %2.2
İşletme kârı negatif: -470.8M INR — faaliyet zararı
Faiz karşılama oranı: 1.9x (Faiz: 337.9M INR)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 742.0M INR
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-15.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 440.20 INR
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%1.1
Net profit margin %1.1 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -1.5 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%1.5
ROE %1.5 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%2.2
EBITDA margin %2.2 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%5.5
Gross profit per revenue %5.5. Evaluate relative to sector.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 59.8x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (59.8x) %67 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
2.86x
Sector: 3.92x
PD/DD 2.86x — sector median (3.92x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
79.8x
Sector: 26.6x
EV/EBITDA 79.8x — sector median's (26.6x) %200 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
2.59x
Current ratio 2.59x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.0x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
0.15x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
2.6x
Interest coverage 2.6x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+27.8
Revenue YoY %27.8 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-65.0
Net profit YoY %-65.0 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
36/100
Weak robustness (36/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-26.9%
Minus %26.9 expected value (270.37) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: PE target: 152.36 | P/B target: 508.91 | EV/EBITDA target: 123.50
Damodaran Valuation
23/100
Low Damodaran score (23/100). ROIC (%0.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
70/100
Low debt risk (70/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.6x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 4.0x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 76/100 | Debt Service: 79/100 | Quality: 69/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%0.0
ROIC (%0.0) cost of capital (16.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %16.0
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Weak Piotroski (1/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 59.8x
Sector median's %67 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.86x
vs 3.92x
Compared to sector %27 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
79.8x
vs 26.6x
Compared to sector %200 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%0.0
vs %16.0 WACC
ROIC 15.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%2.2
vs %3.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %2.2
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (370.00), TRAMA-99 line's %15.9 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 370.00
TRAMA: 440.20
Difference: %-15.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
DELHIVERY — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.