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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
35/100
Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
26/100
Dalio Risk ?
66/100
Piotroski ?
N/A
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham ?
$2.9
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
72/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (72/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $84M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+1805.3 arttı (-$5M → $84M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+929.1 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 4.70x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı ($150M) kârın %179'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+239.9 arttı ($90M → $306M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 100.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 45.8. Pahalı değerleme.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %3.5. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-64.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-11-11 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-11-11
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
146 days
Annual Volatility ?
%61.3
VaR 95% ?
%6.04
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.67
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.36
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%22.0
07.08.2026 → 08.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.38
Parametrik%6.04
Historik%4.97
Cornish-Fisher%4.05
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-41.4%
ROIC ?
3.8%
DCF Value ?
13.46
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+1805.3 artarak 83.7M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+929.1
Hasılat çeyreklik %+12.6 büyüdü (564.0M USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+36.0)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %54.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %+1.8 puan
Net kâr marjı: %14.8
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+239.9 büyüdü (306.1M USD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %54.3
Toplam borç: 1.7B USD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 1.2B USD
Cari oran güçlü: 4.70x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 493.7M USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 169.1M USD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 149.6M USD
ROA düşük: %1.0
Toplam varlıklar %+14.9 büyüdü → 8.1B USD
İşletme kârı pozitif: 133.4M USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+308.2
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.1B USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+5.4
CAPEX: 19.5M USD (Hasılatın %3.5'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+1.4
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 53.62 USD
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %17
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%14.8
Net profit margin %14.8 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +15.8 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%3.5
ROE %3.5 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%54.3
EBITDA margin %54.3 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%54.3
Gross profit per revenue %54.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%19.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %19.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.0x
Sector: 26.0x
F/K 100.0x — sector median's (26.0x) %284 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
4.85x
Sector: 4.54x
PD/DD 4.85x — sector median's (4.54x) %7 above.
EV/EBITDA
45.8x
Sector: 15.7x
EV/EBITDA 45.8x — sector median's (15.7x) %193 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
4.70x
Current ratio 4.70x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
0.40x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
2.4x
Interest coverage 2.4x — limited buffer. May tighten if profitability drops.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+36.0
Revenue YoY %36.0 grew (2026/9) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+929.1
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/9). Significant improvement.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
35/100
Weak robustness (35/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-41.4%
Minus %41.4 expected value (30.39) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 12.97 | P/B target: 48.87 | EV/EBITDA target: 17.72 | DCF target: 13.46
Damodaran Valuation
26/100
Low Damodaran score (26/100). ROIC (%3.8) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
66/100
Moderate debt risk (66/100). Interest coverage ratio 2.4x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — manageable.
Leverage: 73/100 | Debt Service: 77/100 | Quality: 46/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%3.8
ROIC (%3.8) cost of capital (10.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
13.46
DCF (13.46) current price %74.1 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 51.88
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
$2.9
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
100.0x
vs 26.0x
Sector median's %284 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
4.85x
vs 4.54x
Compared to sector %7 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
45.8x
vs 15.7x
Compared to sector %193 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%3.8
vs %10.1 WACC
ROIC 6.2 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.3
vs %25.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (54.37), TRAMA-99 line (53.62) at close levels (%+1.4). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 54.37
TRAMA: 53.62
Difference: %+1.4
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
ARXS — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.