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APPApplovin Corporation
🇺🇸 US
Smart Money
44
395.51
USD
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
-
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
-
Dalio Risk ?
-
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$52.8
Pahalı
Lothien Robustness Summary
75/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (75/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 6 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $1.4B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+13.6). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+72.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
6 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 6 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+55.5 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 3.80x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 37.44. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 22.3. Pahalı değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %155.2. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Data date date not measured Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
date not measured
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%80.3
VaR 95% ?
%8.38
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.83
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%11.90
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%68.9
22.12.2025 → 30.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.32
Parametrik%8.38
Historik%7.59
Cornish-Fisher%7.20
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/9
Net kâr çeyreklik %+13.6 artarak 1.4B USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+72.2
Hasılat çeyreklik %+13.6 büyüdü (2.2B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+55.5)
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %65.9
Toplam borç: 3.5B USD
Net borç: 342.4M USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 1.07x
Cari oran güçlü: 3.80x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 3.2B USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 1.4B USD
ROE yüksek: %43.6 — özkaynak verimli kullanılıyor
ROA güçlü: %16.8 — varlıklar etkin kullanılıyor
Toplam varlıklar: 8.6B USD (%+3.8)
Özkaynak: 3.3B USD (%+4.3)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 1.7B USD
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+14.4
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 4.2B USD
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-17.9 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 481.52 USD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %66'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%65.9
Net profit margin %65.9 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%155.2
ROE %155.2 — high return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%65.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %65.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.6x
Sector: 26.3x
F/K 24.6x — sector median (26.3x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
37.44x
Sector: 4.55x
PD/DD 37.44x — sector median's %723 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 22.3x — sector median's (15.6x) %43 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.80x
Current ratio 3.80x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
1.07x
Debt/Equity 1.07x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
27.9x
Interest coverage 27.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+55.5
Revenue YoY %55.5 grew (2026/9) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+72.2
Net profit YoY %72.2 increased (2026/9) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 903.0M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 798.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
-
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Potential
-
Minus %19.7 expected value (329.44) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 482.73 | P/B target: 102.50 | EV/EBITDA target: 287.20 | DCF target: 301.69
Damodaran Valuation
-
Moderate Damodaran score (55/100). ROIC (%136.7) – WACC (%9.7) difference +127.1 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
-
Low debt risk (94/100). Interest coverage ratio 27.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 83/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 100/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%136.7
ROIC (%136.7) cost of capital 127.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %9.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
301.69
DCF (301.69) current price %26.4 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 410.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$52.8
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
24.6x
vs 26.3x
Sector median's %6 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
37.44x
vs 4.55x
Compared to sector %723 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %43 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%136.7
vs %9.7 WACC
ROIC 127.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%65.9
vs %72.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %65.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (395.51), TRAMA-99 line's %17.9 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 395.51
TRAMA: 481.52
Difference: %-17.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.