9023TOKYO METRO CO LTD

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1471.50
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
58/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
41/100
Dalio Risk ?
57/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
¥1,701.2
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Lothien Robustness Summary
56/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (56/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 3
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥12.2B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 1.39x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (¥10.5B) kârın %86'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 14.4. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %5.0. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+20.6 artabilir (¥12.2B → ¥14.7B).

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Düşük
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%18.0
VaR 95% ?
%1.90
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%2.67
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.54
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%23.5
16.02.2026 → 16.06.2026
Skewness ?
-0.09
Parametrik%1.90
Historik%1.97
Cornish-Fisher%1.91
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-0.5%
ROIC ?
3.5%
DCF Value ?
1,614.60
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-1.8
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1498.40 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %11.6
Net profit margin %11.6 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %5.0
ROE %5.0 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %40.6
EBITDA margin %40.6 — operationally very efficient.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %8.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %8.0'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 14.4x Sector: 16.7x
F/K 14.4x — sector median (16.7x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio 1.16x Sector: 1.27x
PD/DD 1.16x — sector median (1.27x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA 11.1x Sector: 9.3x
EV/EBITDA 11.1x — sector median's (9.3x) %20 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.66x
Current ratio 1.66x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 6.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 6.4x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 1.46x
Debt/Equity 1.46x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 14.1x
Interest coverage 14.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+3.6
Revenue YoY %3.6 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-9.0
Net profit YoY %-9.0 declined — profitability under pressure.
Seasonality Analysis Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 17.9B). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 12.4B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
58/100
Good robustness (58/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
-0.5%
Minus %0.5 expected value (1458.67) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 1476.60 | P/B target: 1644.92 | EV/EBITDA target: 1224.65 | DCF target: 1614.60
Damodaran Valuation
41/100
Low Damodaran score (41/100). ROIC (%3.5) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
57/100
Moderate debt risk (57/100). Interest coverage ratio 14.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 6.4x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 91/100 | Quality: 90/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%3.5
ROIC (%3.5) cost of capital (4.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %4.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
1,614.60
DCF (1614.60) near current price (%+10.1) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 1466.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥1,701.2
Graham intrinsic value: ¥1,701.2. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
14.4x vs 16.7x
Sector median's %13 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.16x vs 1.27x
Compared to sector %9 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
11.1x vs 9.3x
Compared to sector %20 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%3.5 vs %4.4 WACC
ROIC 0.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%12.0 vs %40.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %12.0
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (1471.50), TRAMA-99 line (1498.40) at close levels (%-1.8). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 1471.50
TRAMA: 1498.40
Difference: %-1.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
9023 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.