8303SBI SHINSEI BANK LTD

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1508.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
68/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
54/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
95/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); Banka/finans: kaldıraç/cari-oran/marj kriterleri uygulanamaz, skor kalan kriterlere göre normalize edildi
Graham ?
¥1,993.4
Makul
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
74%
Lothien Robustness Summary
74/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (74/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 0 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥28.4B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+34.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %21.9. Her 100¥ satıştan 22¥ kâr kalıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından ¥1,816.7B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (¥473.7B) kârın %1671'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 11.9. Makul değerleme aralığında.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
205 days
Annual Volatility ?
%42.6
VaR 95% ?
%4.41
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.24
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.89
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%36.0
16.01.2026 → 01.06.2026
Skewness ?
0.56
Parametrik%4.41
Historik%3.80
Cornish-Fisher%3.93
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+18.2%
DCF Value ?
1,624.51
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-2.6
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1547.92 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %21.9
Net profit margin %21.9 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %6.9
ROE %6.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %398.1
EBITDA margin %398.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin %429.0
Gross profit per revenue %429.0. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %366.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %366.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 11.9x Sector: 16.2x
F/K 11.9x — sector median (16.2x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio 1.10x Sector: 1.31x
PD/DD 1.10x — sector median (1.31x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
Indebtedness
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 2.42x
Debt/Equity 2.42x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage 23.1x
Interest coverage 23.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+18.4
Revenue YoY %18.4 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+34.2
Net profit YoY %34.2 increased — strong profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 24.7B). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 21.3B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
68/100
Good robustness (68/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+18.2%
Plus %18.2 expected value (1798.37) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %74.
Components: PE target: 2114.81 | P/B target: 1850.11 | DCF target: 1624.51
Damodaran Valuation
54/100
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
95/100
Low debt risk (95/100). Interest coverage ratio 23.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.4x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 90/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
1,624.51
DCF (1624.51) near current price (%+6.8) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 1521.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Current ratio data missing (C6); gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥1,993.4
Graham intrinsic value: ¥1,993.4. Makul
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.9x vs 16.2x
Sector median's %26 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.10x vs 1.31x
Compared to sector %16 cheaper (by book value)
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (1508.00), TRAMA-99 line (1547.92) at close levels (%-2.6). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 1508.00
TRAMA: 1547.92
Difference: %-2.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
8303 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.