7744Noritsu Koki Co., Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
2067.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
78/100
Very Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
60/100
Dalio Risk ?
81/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
73/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (73/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥5.6B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+32.0 arttı (¥4.3B → ¥5.6B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+100.6 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 11.4. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.93. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 78/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-18.8 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-30 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-30
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%29.6
VaR 95% ?
%2.97
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.24
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.21
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%17.0
12.02.2026 → 30.07.2026
Skewness ?
-0.12
Parametrik%2.97
Historik%2.96
Cornish-Fisher%3.01
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+65.3%
ROIC ?
5.8%
DCF Value ?
4,704.36
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 83.0B JPY
Net borç: 18.1B JPY
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.36x
Cari oran: 1.15x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 64.9B JPY
Ödenmiş sermaye: 106.0M JPY
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 16.6B JPY
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+0.6
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 2054.50 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %6.2
ROE %6.2 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %17.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %17.5'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 11.4x Sector: 20.8x
F/K 11.4x — sector median's (20.8x) %45 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio 0.93x Sector: 2.52x
PD/DD 0.93x — sector median's (2.52x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA 8.4x Sector: 10.4x
EV/EBITDA 8.4x — sector median (10.4x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.15x
Current ratio 1.15x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.0x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity 0.36x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 60.8x
Interest coverage 60.8x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+11.9
Revenue YoY %11.9 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+100.6
Net profit YoY %100.6 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 4.2B). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 4.2B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
78/100
Very strong robustness score (78/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+65.3%
Plus %65.3 expected value (3412.36) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 3740.04 | P/B target: 5717.52 | EV/EBITDA target: 2558.64 | DCF target: 4704.36
Damodaran Valuation
60/100
Moderate Damodaran score (60/100). ROIC (%5.8) – WACC (%7.8) difference -1.9 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
81/100
Low debt risk (81/100). Interest coverage ratio 60.8x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.0x — manageable.
Leverage: 61/100 | Debt Service: 79/100 | Quality: 87/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%5.8
ROIC (%5.8) cost of capital (7.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.8
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
4,704.36
DCF modeli 4704.36 target value produced — compared to current price %127.9 undervalued.
Current price: 2064.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.4x vs 20.8x
Sector median's %45 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.93x vs 2.52x
Compared to sector %63 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.4x vs 10.4x
Compared to sector %19 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%5.8 vs %7.8 WACC
ROIC 1.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%14.5 vs %24.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %14.5
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (2067.00), TRAMA-99 line (2054.50) at close levels (%+0.6). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 2067.00
TRAMA: 2054.50
Difference: %+0.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
7744 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.