7616Colowide Co.,Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
2198.50
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
55/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
58/100
Dalio Risk ?
44/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
54/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (54/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥242M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-68.5 geriledi (¥769M → ¥242M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+421.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 89.8. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %3.0. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Mevsimsel Etki
Çeyreklik düşüş (%-68.5) ama yıllık bazda artış (%+421.2). Bu muhtemelen mevsimsel bir düşüş.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+173.5 artabilir (¥242M → ¥663M).

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%24.2
VaR 95% ?
%2.41
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.45
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.47
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%15.3
03.04.2026 → 19.06.2026
Skewness ?
0.00
Parametrik%2.41
Historik%2.27
Cornish-Fisher%2.33
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+11.6%
ROIC ?
3.5%
DCF Value ?
6,370.73
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-68.5 düşerek 242.4M JPY oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+421.2
Ödenmiş sermaye: 106.3M JPY
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+17.5 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1871.56 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %3.0
ROE %3.0 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %5.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %5.7'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 89.8x Sector: 24.4x
F/K 89.8x — sector median's (24.4x) %267 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 2.72x Sector: 2.32x
PD/DD 2.72x — sector median's (2.32x) %17 above.
EV/EBITDA 9.5x Sector: 10.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.5x — sector median (10.6x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 0.86x
Current ratio 0.86x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA 5.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 5.0x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 2.21x
Debt/Equity 2.21x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage 10.1x
Interest coverage 10.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+11.5
Revenue YoY %11.5 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+421.2
Net profit turned from loss to profit (2026/6). Significant improvement.
Seasonality Analysis Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 602.7M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 159.7M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
55/100
Moderate robustness (55/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+11.6%
Plus %11.6 expected value (2405.26) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 562.16 | P/B target: 1852.14 | EV/EBITDA target: 2387.02 | DCF target: 6370.73
Damodaran Valuation
58/100
Moderate Damodaran score (58/100). ROIC (%3.5) – WACC (%5.4) difference -2.0 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
44/100
High debt risk (44/100). Interest coverage ratio 10.1x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 5.0x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 21/100 | Debt Service: 72/100 | Quality: 62/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%3.5
ROIC (%3.5) cost of capital (5.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %5.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
6,370.73
DCF modeli 6370.73 target value produced — compared to current price %195.6 undervalued.
Current price: 2155.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
89.8x vs 24.4x
Sector median's %267 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.72x vs 2.32x
Compared to sector %17 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.5x vs 10.6x
Compared to sector %10 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%3.5 vs %5.4 WACC
ROIC 2.0 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%0.9 vs %12.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %0.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (2198.50), TRAMA-99 line's %17.5 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 2198.50
TRAMA: 1871.56
Difference: %+17.5
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
7616 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.