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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
21/100
Very Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
18/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
16/100
Piotroski ?
0/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.7052 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Lothien Robustness Summary
27/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (27/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -¥3.5B zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+34.5 arttı (-¥5.3B → -¥3.5B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+82.9 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Geriledi
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %-31.8 düştü. Talep zayıflıyor veya mevsimsel etki var.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-26.3 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 8.39x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.64x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
Borç Azalıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %-21.5 düştü. Bilanço güçleniyor.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+92.0 arttı (-¥1.4B → -¥116M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 37.47. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 15.1. Pahalı değerleme.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 21/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı zayıf görünüyor.
Özkaynak Büyümesi
Özkaynak çeyreklik %+148.9 arttı. Şirket içsel birikimle güçleniyor.
Data date 2026-10-30 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-30
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%155.6
VaR 95% ?
%15.59
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%22.27
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%13.75
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%79.7
17.03.2026 → 30.10.2026
Skewness ?
4.28
Parametrik%15.59
Historik%8.70
Cornish-Fisher%-6.63
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-20.9%
ROIC ?
-18.9%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+34.5 artarak -3.5B JPY oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+82.9
Hasılat çeyreklik %-31.8 düştü (23.9B JPY)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-26.3)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %11.4
Brüt marj değişimi: %-2.8 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-14.4 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+92.0 büyüdü (-116.0M JPY)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-0.5
Toplam borç %-21.5 azaldı → 51.0B JPY
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 30.4B JPY
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 14.05x
Cari oran < 1: 0.64x — likidite riski
Nakit %-25.9 azaldı → 20.6B JPY
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -7.4B JPY
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -7.7B JPY — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-95.2 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-3.3
Toplam varlıklar %-14.5 küçüldü → 106.3B JPY
Özkaynak %+148.9 arttı → 3.6B JPY
İşletme kârı negatif: -1.2B JPY — faaliyet zararı
Faiz gideri: 2.5B JPY
Ödenmiş sermaye: 4.3B JPY
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -35.6B JPY — kısa vadeli baskı
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+24.0
CAPEX: 300.0M JPY (Hasılatın %1.3'i)
Son 3 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-36.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 42.59 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-14.4
Net profit margin %-14.4 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.6 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%158.9
ROE %158.9 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-0.5
EBITDA margin %-0.5 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin
%11.4
Gross profit per revenue %11.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-16.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-16.9'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
37.47x
Sector: 2.52x
PD/DD 37.47x — sector median's %1387 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
Sector: 10.4x
EV/EBITDA 15.1x — sector median's (10.4x) %45 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.64x
Current ratio 0.64x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.6x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
14.05x
Debt/Equity 14.05x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
1.2x
Interest coverage 1.2x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-26.3
Revenue YoY %-26.3 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+82.9
Loss %82.9 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
21/100
Very weak robustness (21/100). Multiple critical indicators are red: high debt, low profitability or excessive valuation.
Very Weak
Potential
-20.9%
Minus %20.9 expected value (22.95) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 7.25 | EV/EBITDA target: 19.97
Damodaran Valuation
18/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
16/100
High debt risk (16/100). Interest coverage ratio 1.2x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 4.6x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 4/100 | Debt Service: 31/100 | Quality: 6/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-18.9
ROIC (%-18.9) cost of capital (10.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.6
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
0/9
Weak Piotroski (0/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.7052 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
37.47x
vs 2.52x
Compared to sector %1387 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
vs 10.4x
Compared to sector %45 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-18.9
vs %10.6 WACC
ROIC 29.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-2.4
vs %8.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-2.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (27.00), TRAMA-99 line's %36.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 27.00
TRAMA: 42.59
Difference: %-36.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
6740 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.