6724Seiko Epson Corporation

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
3233.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
53/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
43/100
Dalio Risk ?
85/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); gross profit, revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); revenue data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
¥1,845.1
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
22/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (22/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 6 | Nötr: 0
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -¥2.6B zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-115.5 geriledi (¥16.8B → -¥2.6B). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-125.1 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından ¥57.1B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 2.16x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 59.5. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %1.4. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+169.6 artabilir (-¥2.6B → ¥1.8B).

Data date 2026-10-30 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-30
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%35.1
VaR 95% ?
%3.42
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.92
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.70
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%14.9
03.06.2026 → 24.06.2026
Skewness ?
1.96
Parametrik%3.42
Historik%3.12
Cornish-Fisher%1.47
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+17.4%
ROIC ?
4.7%
DCF Value ?
4,676.19
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+9.6 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 2948.92 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-0.7
Net profit margin %-0.7 — loss period.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %1.4
ROE %1.4 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %9.3
EBITDA margin %9.3 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %35.4
Gross profit per revenue %35.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %4.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %4.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 59.5x Sector: 20.8x
F/K 59.5x — sector median's (20.8x) %186 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 1.27x Sector: 2.52x
PD/DD 1.27x — sector median's (2.52x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA 7.2x Sector: 10.4x
EV/EBITDA 7.2x — sector median's (10.4x) %31 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 2.16x
Current ratio 2.16x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.6x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity 0.27x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 72.5x
Interest coverage 72.5x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+3.7
Revenue YoY %3.7 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-125.1
Net profit YoY %-125.1 declined (2026/3) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 20.4B). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 3.9B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
53/100
Moderate robustness (53/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+17.4%
Plus %17.4 expected value (3967.46) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 870.97 | P/B target: 6730.03 | EV/EBITDA target: 4892.69 | DCF target: 4676.19
Damodaran Valuation
43/100
Low Damodaran score (43/100). ROIC (%4.7) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
85/100
Low debt risk (85/100). Interest coverage ratio 72.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.6x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 77/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 54/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.7
ROIC (%4.7) cost of capital (8.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
4,676.19
DCF modeli 4676.19 target value produced — compared to current price %38.4 undervalued.
Current price: 3379.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); gross profit, revenue data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥1,845.1
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
59.5x vs 20.8x
Sector median's %186 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.27x vs 2.52x
Compared to sector %50 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
7.2x vs 10.4x
Compared to sector %31 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.7 vs %8.0 WACC
ROIC 3.3 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.1 vs %10.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.1
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (3233.00), TRAMA-99 line's %9.6 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 3233.00
TRAMA: 2948.92
Difference: %+9.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
6724 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.