5411JFE Holdings, Inc.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1735.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
61/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
47/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
¥3,196.8
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Lothien Robustness Summary
47/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (47/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥21.0B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-6.6 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %1.9. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.43. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %2.4. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%26.4
VaR 95% ?
%2.74
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.87
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%3.77
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%34.5
12.02.2026 → 25.06.2026
Skewness ?
-0.07
Parametrik%2.74
Historik%2.87
Cornish-Fisher%2.75
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+54.3%
ROIC ?
1.4%
DCF Value ?
8,775.41
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-2.3
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1775.38 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %1.9
Net profit margin %1.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %2.4
ROE %2.4 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %2.6
EBITDA margin %2.6 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin %11.6
Gross profit per revenue %11.6. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %2.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %2.0'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 15.9x Sector: 15.2x
F/K 15.9x — sector median's (15.2x) %5 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 0.43x Sector: 1.38x
PD/DD 0.43x — sector median's (1.38x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA 14.9x Sector: 7.8x
EV/EBITDA 14.9x — sector median's (7.8x) %92 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.55x
Current ratio 1.55x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 10.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 10.0x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity 0.75x
Debt/Equity 0.75x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 8.9x
Interest coverage 8.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-6.6
Revenue YoY %-6.6 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-8.5
Net profit YoY %-8.5 declined — profitability under pressure.
Seasonality Analysis Q1 (Oca-Mar)
Historically strongest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 31.1B). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 15.0B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+54.3%
Plus %54.3 expected value (2713.64) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 1932.31 | P/B target: 5277.00 | EV/EBITDA target: 917.95 | DCF target: 5277.00
Damodaran Valuation
47/100
Low Damodaran score (47/100). ROIC (%1.4) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 8.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 10.0x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 38/100 | Debt Service: 89/100 | Quality: 72/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.4
ROIC (%1.4) cost of capital (3.9%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %3.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
8,775.41
DCF modeli 8775.41 target value produced — compared to current price %398.9 undervalued.
Current price: 1759.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥3,196.8
Graham intrinsic value: ¥3,196.8. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
15.9x vs 15.2x
Sector median's %5 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
0.43x vs 1.38x
Compared to sector %69 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
14.9x vs 7.8x
Compared to sector %92 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.4 vs %3.9 WACC
ROIC 2.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.9 vs %4.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.9
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (1735.00), TRAMA-99 line (1775.38) at close levels (%-2.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 1735.00
TRAMA: 1775.38
Difference: %-2.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
5411 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.