5016JX Advanced Metals Corporation

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
2830.50
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
41/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
33/100
Dalio Risk ?
70/100
Piotroski ?
N/A
Yetersiz çeyrek verisi: 4 mevcut, en az 5 gerekli
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
55/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (55/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥53.1B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+181.3 arttı (¥18.9B → ¥53.1B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 13.0. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 21.9. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-26.4 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%77.4
VaR 95% ?
%7.80
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%11.12
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.55
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%50.5
11.05.2026 → 23.10.2026
Skewness ?
0.43
Parametrik%7.80
Historik%6.83
Cornish-Fisher%7.03
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-26.2%
ROIC ?
2.0%
DCF Value ?
3,382.85
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+181.3
Ödenmiş sermaye: 934.3M JPY
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-28.7 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 3969.94 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %8.7
ROE %8.7 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %14.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %14.5'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 13.0x Sector: 15.2x
F/K 13.0x — sector median (15.2x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio 3.80x Sector: 1.38x
PD/DD 3.80x — sector median's %176 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 21.9x Sector: 7.8x
EV/EBITDA 21.9x — sector median's (7.8x) %182 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.77x
Current ratio 1.77x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity 0.47x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 27.3x
Interest coverage 27.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+181.3
Net profit YoY %181.3 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
41/100
Moderate robustness (41/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-26.2%
Minus %26.2 expected value (2151.99) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 2133.11 | P/B target: 1116.84 | EV/EBITDA target: 1035.08 | DCF target: 3382.85
Damodaran Valuation
33/100
Low Damodaran score (33/100). ROIC (%2.0) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
70/100
Low debt risk (70/100). Interest coverage ratio 27.3x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 2.5x — manageable.
Leverage: 75/100 | Debt Service: 94/100 | Quality: 69/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%2.0
ROIC (%2.0) cost of capital (7.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
3,382.85
DCF (3382.85) near current price (%+16.0) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 2917.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
13.0x vs 15.2x
Sector median's %14 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
3.80x vs 1.38x
Compared to sector %176 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
21.9x vs 7.8x
Compared to sector %182 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.0 vs %7.3 WACC
ROIC 5.3 bps below cost of capital
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (2830.50), TRAMA-99 line's %28.7 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 2830.50
TRAMA: 3969.94
Difference: %-28.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
5016 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.