4887Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1717.50
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
61/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
40/100
Dalio Risk ?
63/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
48/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (48/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥2.4B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+31.4 arttı (¥1.8B → ¥2.4B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-50.3 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %4.5. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Mevsimsel Toparlanma, Ama Trend Bozuk
Çeyreklik artış (%+31.4) ama yıllık bazda düşüş (%-50.3). Mevsimsel toparlanma var ama uzun vadeli trend zayıf.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-20.4 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%27.8
VaR 95% ?
%2.92
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.12
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.10
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%35.3
23.01.2026 → 02.09.2026
Skewness ?
-2.04
Parametrik%2.92
Historik%2.54
Cornish-Fisher%3.19
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+13.9%
ROIC ?
4.1%
DCF Value ?
1,383.00
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+31.4 artarak 2.4B JPY oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-50.3 geriledi
Ödenmiş sermaye: 115.4M JPY
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif altında: %-0.8
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1732.18 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %4.5
ROE %4.5 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-6.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-6.4'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 25.0x Sector: 20.8x
F/K 25.0x — sector median's (20.8x) %20 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 1.12x Sector: 2.35x
PD/DD 1.12x — sector median's (2.35x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA 9.5x Sector: 9.5x
EV/EBITDA 9.5x — sector median's (9.5x) %0 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 2.48x
Current ratio 2.48x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 0.59x
Debt/Equity 0.59x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 27.6x
Interest coverage 27.6x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+6.7
Revenue YoY %6.7 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-50.3
Net profit YoY %-50.3 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 3.4B). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 2.4B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+13.9%
Plus %13.9 expected value (1965.39) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 1452.76 | P/B target: 3666.61 | EV/EBITDA target: 1719.16 | DCF target: 1383.00
Damodaran Valuation
40/100
Low Damodaran score (40/100). ROIC (%4.1) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
63/100
Moderate debt risk (63/100). Interest coverage ratio 27.6x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — manageable.
Leverage: 49/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 75/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.1
ROIC (%4.1) cost of capital (5.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %5.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
1,383.00
DCF (1383.00) current price %19.8 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 1725.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
25.0x vs 20.8x
Sector median's %20 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
1.12x vs 2.35x
Compared to sector %53 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.5x vs 9.5x
Compared to sector %0 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.1 vs %5.7 WACC
ROIC 1.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.3 vs %14.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.3
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (1717.50), TRAMA-99 line (1732.18) at close levels (%-0.8). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 1717.50
TRAMA: 1732.18
Difference: %-0.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
4887 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.