4816Toei Animation Co.,Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
3030.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
61/100
Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
58/100
Dalio Risk ?
98/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5)
Graham ?
¥1,520.3
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
53/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (53/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥6.6B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-7.1 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %28.2. Her 100¥ satıştan 28¥ kâr kalıyor.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 5.11x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 18.0. Pahalı değerleme.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%36.5
VaR 95% ?
%3.76
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.33
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.33
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%28.3
28.10.2025 → 24.02.2026
Skewness ?
-0.17
Parametrik%3.76
Historik%3.63
Cornish-Fisher%3.81
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-15.9%
ROIC ?
27.9%
DCF Value ?
2,618.03
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+9.0 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 2779.21 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %28.2
Net profit margin %28.2 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %11.6
ROE %11.6 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %37.3
EBITDA margin %37.3 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin %52.5
Gross profit per revenue %52.5. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %19.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %19.2'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 24.8x Sector: 24.4x
F/K 24.8x — sector median's (24.4x) %1 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio 3.64x Sector: 2.32x
PD/DD 3.64x — sector median's %57 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 18.0x Sector: 10.6x
EV/EBITDA 18.0x — sector median's (10.6x) %70 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 5.11x
Current ratio 5.11x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.02x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-7.1
Revenue YoY %-7.1 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+12.0
Net profit YoY %12.0 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 6.3B). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 5.6B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
-15.9%
Minus %15.9 expected value (2560.39) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 3087.53 | P/B target: 2009.18 | EV/EBITDA target: 1786.77 | DCF target: 2618.03
Damodaran Valuation
58/100
Moderate Damodaran score (58/100). ROIC (%27.9) – WACC (%7.9) difference +20.1 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
98/100
Low debt risk (98/100). Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 99/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 91/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%27.9
ROIC (%27.9) cost of capital 20.1 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %7.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
2,618.03
DCF (2618.03) current price %14.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 3045.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥1,520.3
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
24.8x vs 24.4x
Sector median's %1 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
3.64x vs 2.32x
Compared to sector %57 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.0x vs 10.6x
Compared to sector %70 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%27.9 vs %7.9 WACC
ROIC 20.1 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%27.0 vs %36.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %27.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (3030.00), TRAMA-99 line's %9.0 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 3030.00
TRAMA: 2779.21
Difference: %+9.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
4816 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.