4680Round One Corporation

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1318.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
51/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
55/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
53/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (53/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥3.4B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+349.2 arttı (¥750M → ¥3.4B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 62.4. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-47.9 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%42.4
VaR 95% ?
%4.35
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.17
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.29
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%37.4
08.10.2025 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.29
Parametrik%4.35
Historik%3.98
Cornish-Fisher%4.06
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+11.5%
ROIC ?
2.8%
DCF Value ?
5,352.45
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+349.2 artarak 3.4B JPY oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%-1.1)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 262.9M JPY
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+13.1 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1165.59 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %6.8
ROE %6.8 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %298.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %298.1'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 62.4x Sector: 24.4x
F/K 62.4x — sector median's (24.4x) %155 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 4.24x Sector: 2.32x
PD/DD 4.24x — sector median's %83 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 9.3x Sector: 10.6x
EV/EBITDA 9.3x — sector median (10.6x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.08x
Current ratio 1.08x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.6x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 2.28x
Debt/Equity 2.28x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage 12.5x
Interest coverage 12.5x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+6.8
Revenue YoY %6.8 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-1.1
Net profit YoY %-1.1 declined — profitability under pressure.
Seasonality Analysis Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 2.6B). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 910.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
51/100
Moderate robustness (51/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+11.5%
Plus %11.5 expected value (1487.40) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 615.80 | P/B target: 744.54 | EV/EBITDA target: 1505.09 | DCF target: 4000.50
Damodaran Valuation
55/100
Moderate Damodaran score (55/100). ROIC (%2.8) – WACC (%5.7) difference -2.9 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 12.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.6x — manageable.
Leverage: 32/100 | Debt Service: 77/100 | Quality: 80/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%2.8
ROIC (%2.8) cost of capital (5.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %5.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
5,352.45
DCF modeli 5352.45 target value produced — compared to current price %301.4 undervalued.
Current price: 1333.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
62.4x vs 24.4x
Sector median's %155 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
4.24x vs 2.32x
Compared to sector %83 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
9.3x vs 10.6x
Compared to sector %11 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.8 vs %5.7 WACC
ROIC 2.9 bps below cost of capital
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (1318.00), TRAMA-99 line's %13.1 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 1318.00
TRAMA: 1165.59
Difference: %+13.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
4680 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.