4587PeptiDream Inc.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
1059.50
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
38/100
Weak
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
22/100
Dalio Risk ?
74/100
Piotroski ?
1/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Lothien Robustness Summary
33/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (33/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 1 | Negatif: 3 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -¥855M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+5.6). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 33.0. Pahalı değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-5.3. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+23.9 artabilir (-¥855M → -¥650M).

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%43.9
VaR 95% ?
%4.68
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.57
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.73
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%48.1
16.01.2026 → 15.06.2026
Skewness ?
-0.46
Parametrik%4.68
Historik%4.02
Cornish-Fisher%4.91
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-36.9%
ROIC ?
2.6%
DCF Value ?
251.91
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 15.7B JPY
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -7.9B JPY (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.32x
Cari oran güçlü: 4.15x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 23.6B JPY
Ödenmiş sermaye: 128.6M JPY
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 25.1B JPY
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+0.6
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1053.24 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %-5.2
ROE %-5.2 — negative return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-23.0
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-23.0'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio 2.84x Sector: 2.35x
PD/DD 2.84x — sector median's (2.35x) %21 above.
EV/EBITDA 33.0x Sector: 9.5x
EV/EBITDA 33.0x — sector median's (9.5x) %248 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 4.15x
Current ratio 4.15x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA 4.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.0x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 0.32x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 13.3x
Interest coverage 13.3x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %-60.3
Revenue YoY %-60.3 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+17.3
Loss %17.3 decreased — improvement continues.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 1.4B). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 621.8M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
38/100
Weak robustness (38/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-36.9%
Minus %36.9 expected value (676.64) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %69.
Components: P/B target: 873.87 | EV/EBITDA target: 308.23 | DCF target: 268.12
Damodaran Valuation
22/100
Low Damodaran score (22/100). ROIC (%2.6) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
74/100
Low debt risk (74/100). Interest coverage ratio 13.3x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 4.0x — manageable.
Leverage: 52/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 29/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%2.6
ROIC (%2.6) cost of capital (7.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %7.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
251.91
DCF (251.91) current price %76.5 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 1072.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Weak Piotroski (1/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
2.84x vs 2.35x
Compared to sector %21 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
33.0x vs 9.5x
Compared to sector %248 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%2.6 vs %7.6 WACC
ROIC 5.0 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.1 vs %15.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.1
↔
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (1059.50), TRAMA-99 line (1053.24) at close levels (%+0.6). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 1059.50
TRAMA: 1053.24
Difference: %+0.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
4587 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.