4547Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
3815.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
74/100
Very Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
47/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
90/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Graham ?
¥6,444.0
Ucuz
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
69%
Lothien Robustness Summary
65/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (65/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥3.1B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından ¥27.8B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 5.30x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (¥3.1B) ama FCF negatif (-¥1.8B). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 11.5. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.69. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük ROE
ROE: %4.0. Sermaye getirisi yetersiz — enflasyonun altında.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 74/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%28.8
VaR 95% ?
%3.01
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.24
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.49
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%28.0
27.02.2026 → 18.05.2026
Skewness ?
-2.86
Parametrik%3.01
Historik%2.83
Cornish-Fisher%3.30
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+71.7%
ROIC ?
-0.3%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-8.0 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 4146.92 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %12.7
Net profit margin %12.7 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %4.0
ROE %4.0 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %22.1
EBITDA margin %22.1 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin %47.0
Gross profit per revenue %47.0. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %-5.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-5.2'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 11.5x Sector: 20.8x
F/K 11.5x — sector median's (20.8x) %45 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio 0.69x Sector: 2.35x
PD/DD 0.69x — sector median's (2.35x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA 6.1x Sector: 9.5x
EV/EBITDA 6.1x — sector median's (9.5x) %35 below. Cheap relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 5.30x
Current ratio 5.30x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.01x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 779.2x
Interest coverage 779.2x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+10.3
Revenue YoY %10.3 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+3.2
Net profit YoY %3.2 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 3.8B). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 3.0B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
74/100
Very strong robustness score (74/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+71.7%
Plus %71.7 expected value (6550.61) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %69.
Components: PE target: 6291.58 | P/B target: 11445.00 | EV/EBITDA target: 5899.98
Damodaran Valuation
47/100
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
90/100
Low debt risk (90/100). Interest coverage ratio 779.2x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.1x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 99/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 71/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-0.3
ROIC (%-0.3) cost of capital (8.3%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.3
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥6,444.0
Graham intrinsic value: ¥6,444.0. Ucuz
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
11.5x vs 20.8x
Sector median's %45 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.69x vs 2.35x
Compared to sector %71 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
6.1x vs 9.5x
Compared to sector %35 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-0.3 vs %8.3 WACC
ROIC 8.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%12.9 vs %22.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %12.9
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (3815.00), TRAMA-99 line's %8.0 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 3815.00
TRAMA: 4146.92
Difference: %-8.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
4547 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.