319ANext Generation Technology Group Inc.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
23100.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
43/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
32/100
ROIC banka/finans için tanımsız — mevduat/prim fonlaması borç değil hammaddedir; değerleme öz-sermaye (P/DD) tabanlı yapılır
Dalio Risk ?
93/100
Piotroski ?
1/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current ratio data missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
58/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (58/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 4 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥1.1B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+11.6). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+490.9 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 51.0. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 19.12. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 53.5. Pahalı değerleme.
Yüksek ROE
Özkaynak getirisi (ROE): %30.4. Sermaye verimli kullanılıyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+18.0 artabilir (¥1.1B → ¥1.3B).

Data date 2026-10-30 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-30
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%74.9
VaR 95% ?
%7.27
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%10.49
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%7.93
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%26.7
19.01.2026 → 30.01.2026
Skewness ?
0.64
Parametrik%7.27
Historik%6.26
Cornish-Fisher%6.26
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-54.2%
DCF Value ?
4,860.56
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Toplam borç: 18.0B JPY
Net borç: 6.8B JPY
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 1.68x
Cari oran: 1.88x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 11.2B JPY
Ödenmiş sermaye: 8.8M JPY
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 9.3B JPY
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+20.9 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 19113.14 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %33.2
ROE %33.2 — high return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %4.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %4.2'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 51.0x Sector: 16.3x
F/K 51.0x — sector median's (16.3x) %214 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 19.12x Sector: 1.31x
PD/DD 19.12x — sector median's %1359 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 53.5x Sector: 11.8x
EV/EBITDA 53.5x — sector median's (11.8x) %352 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.88x
Current ratio 1.88x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 4.5x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.5x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 1.68x
Debt/Equity 1.68x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage 35.7x
Interest coverage 35.7x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+35.4
Revenue YoY %35.4 grew (2025/12) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+490.9
Net profit YoY %490.9 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 597.3M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 496.6M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
43/100
Moderate robustness (43/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-54.2%
Minus %54.2 expected value (10633.69) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 7898.91 | P/B target: 5807.50 | EV/EBITDA target: 5807.50 | DCF target: 5807.50
Damodaran Valuation
32/100
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
93/100
Low debt risk (93/100). Interest coverage ratio 35.7x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 4.5x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 50/100 | Debt Service: 97/100 | Quality: 83/100
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
4,860.56
DCF (4860.56) current price %79.1 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 23230.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Weak Piotroski (1/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
51.0x vs 16.3x
Sector median's %214 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
19.12x vs 1.31x
Compared to sector %1359 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
53.5x vs 11.8x
Compared to sector %352 higher EV/EBITDA
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%22.4 vs %28.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %22.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (23100.00), TRAMA-99 line's %20.9 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 23100.00
TRAMA: 19113.14
Difference: %+20.9
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
319A — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.