3186NEXTAGE Co., Ltd.

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
2694.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
75/100
Very Strong
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
70/100
Dalio Risk ?
69/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
¥2,483.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
72/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (72/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 1 | Nötr: 3
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥5.0B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.9). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+36.0 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %2.4. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
Orta Seviye Borç
Net borç/özkaynak 0.93x. Yönetilebilir seviyede ama takip edilmeli.
Makul F/K
Trailing F/K: 10.8. Makul değerleme aralığında.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 75/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı güçlü görünüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+47.4 artabilir (¥5.0B → ¥7.3B).

Data date 2026-11-13 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-11-13
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%46.2
VaR 95% ?
%4.70
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.68
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.04
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%42.9
19.06.2026 → 02.11.2026
Skewness ?
0.38
Parametrik%4.70
Historik%4.40
Cornish-Fisher%4.22
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+41.8%
ROIC ?
11.6%
DCF Value ?
9,246.21
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/9
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-6.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 2883.36 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %2.4
Net profit margin %2.4 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %11.3
ROE %11.3 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %3.5
EBITDA margin %3.5 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin %15.8
Gross profit per revenue %15.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 10.8x Sector: 17.8x
F/K 10.8x — sector median's (17.8x) %39 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio 2.38x Sector: 1.79x
PD/DD 2.38x — sector median's (1.79x) %33 above.
EV/EBITDA 11.2x Sector: 10.1x
EV/EBITDA 11.2x — sector median's (10.1x) %11 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.70x
Current ratio 1.70x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA 4.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.4x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity 1.29x
Debt/Equity 1.29x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage 23.7x
Interest coverage 23.7x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+24.7
Revenue YoY %24.7 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+36.0
Net profit YoY %36.0 increased — strong profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
75/100
Very strong robustness score (75/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+41.8%
Plus %41.8 expected value (3864.40) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 4794.88 | P/B target: 2221.70 | EV/EBITDA target: 2457.51 | DCF target: 8178.00
Damodaran Valuation
70/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (70/100). ROIC (%11.6) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
69/100
Moderate debt risk (69/100). Interest coverage ratio 23.7x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 4.4x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 42/100 | Debt Service: 92/100 | Quality: 84/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%11.6
ROIC (%11.6) cost of capital 5.6 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %6.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
9,246.21
DCF modeli 9246.21 target value produced — compared to current price %239.2 undervalued.
Current price: 2726.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
¥2,483.2
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
10.8x vs 17.8x
Sector median's %39 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.38x vs 1.79x
Compared to sector %33 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
11.2x vs 10.1x
Compared to sector %11 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.6 vs %6.0 WACC
ROIC 5.6 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%2.4 vs %3.4 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %2.4
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (2694.00), TRAMA-99 line's %6.6 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 2694.00
TRAMA: 2883.36
Difference: %-6.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
3186 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.