3097The Monogatari Corporation

🇯🇵 Japonya Borsası
6020.00
JPY
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
48/100
Moderate
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
38/100
Dalio Risk ?
85/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current period current ratio missing (C6); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Lothien Robustness Summary
50/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Orta (50/100)
Karışık sinyaller. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz göstergeler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 1
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ¥1.9B net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+24.6 arttı (¥1.5B → ¥1.9B). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 34.2. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 5.65. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 16.5. Pahalı değerleme.

Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-23
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%38.8
VaR 95% ?
%3.85
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.51
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.24
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%19.9
06.03.2026 → 27.04.2026
Skewness ?
1.78
Parametrik%3.85
Historik%3.18
Cornish-Fisher%1.99
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-34.7%
ROIC ?
14.8%
DCF Value ?
843.35
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+34.0 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 4491.99 JPY
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %4.8
ROE %4.8 — low return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %1.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %1.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio 34.2x Sector: 24.4x
F/K 34.2x — sector median's (24.4x) %40 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio 5.65x Sector: 2.32x
PD/DD 5.65x — sector median's %144 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA 16.5x Sector: 10.6x
EV/EBITDA 16.5x — sector median's (10.6x) %56 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.12x
Current ratio 1.12x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.1x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.1x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity 0.38x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage 310.5x
Interest coverage 310.5x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+15.6
Revenue YoY %15.6 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %+24.6
Net profit YoY %24.6 increased — strong profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
48/100
Moderate robustness (48/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-34.7%
Minus %34.7 expected value (3871.25) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 4348.70 | P/B target: 2543.28 | EV/EBITDA target: 3792.31 | DCF target: 1482.50
Damodaran Valuation
38/100
Low Damodaran score (38/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
85/100
Low debt risk (85/100). Interest coverage ratio 310.5x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 1.1x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 84/100 | Debt Service: 78/100 | Quality: 80/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%14.8
ROIC (%14.8) cost of capital 6.4 bps above → company creates value.
WACC: %8.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
843.35
DCF (843.35) current price %85.8 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 5930.00
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
34.2x vs 24.4x
Sector median's %40 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
5.65x vs 2.32x
Compared to sector %144 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
16.5x vs 10.6x
Compared to sector %56 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%14.8 vs %8.4 WACC
ROIC 6.4 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%5.0 vs %11.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %5.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (6020.00), TRAMA-99 line's %34.0 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 6020.00
TRAMA: 4491.99
Difference: %+34.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
3097 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.