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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
57/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
38/100
Dalio Risk ?
90/100
Piotroski ?
8/9
Strong
Graham ?
S$1.4
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
86/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Güçlü (86/100)
Temel göstergelerin büyük çoğunluğu pozitif. Kârlılık, büyüme ve değerleme açısından güçlü görünüm. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Olumlu | Pozitif: 10 | Negatif: 2 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte S$45M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+957.6 arttı (S$4M → S$45M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+957.6 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+357.0 arttı (S$100M → S$456M). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+357.0 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %25.7 → %29.8 (+4.1 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından S$57M fazla. Borç riski düşük.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 3.93x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+59.3 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (S$49M) kârın %110'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+361.9 arttı (S$12M → S$56M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-82.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%142.9
VaR 95% ?
%14.01
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%20.15
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%0.11
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%1.5
14.04.2026 → 17.04.2026
Skewness ?
13.52
Parametrik%14.01
Historik%0.00
Cornish-Fisher%-86.36
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-19.3%
ROIC ?
4.3%
DCF Value ?
6.02
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+957.6
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+357.0)
Brüt kâr marjı: %29.8
Net kâr marjı: %9.8
FAVÖK marjı: %12.3
Toplam borç: 26.1M SGD
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -56.6M SGD (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.05x
Cari oran güçlü: 3.93x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit ve benzerleri: 82.7M SGD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 102.0M SGD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 49.2M SGD
ROE: %8.3
ROA: %6.3
Ödenmiş sermaye: 319.5M SGD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 384.5M SGD
Son 7 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+167.8 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1.53 SGD
Likit varlık ağırlığı yüksek: Dönen varlıklar toplam varlıkların %72'i
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%9.8
Net profit margin %9.8 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +5.6 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%10.3
ROE %10.3 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%12.3
EBITDA margin %12.3 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%29.8
Gross profit per revenue %29.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%17.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %17.9'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.4x
Sector: 12.4x
F/K 18.4x — sector median's (12.4x) %49 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
2.44x
Sector: 1.49x
PD/DD 2.44x — sector median's %64 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
Sector: 6.0x
EV/EBITDA 13.6x — sector median's (6.0x) %128 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.93x
Current ratio 3.93x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.3x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.05x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
38.0x
Interest coverage 38.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+357.0
Revenue YoY %357.0 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+957.6
Net profit YoY %957.6 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 17.3M). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 3.5M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
57/100
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
-19.3%
Minus %19.3 expected value (3.31) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 2.38 | P/B target: 2.53 | EV/EBITDA target: 1.80 | DCF target: 6.02
Damodaran Valuation
38/100
Low Damodaran score (38/100). ROIC (%4.3) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
90/100
Low debt risk (90/100). Interest coverage ratio 38.0x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 0.3x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 98/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 55/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.3
ROIC (%4.3) cost of capital (11.9%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
6.02
DCF modeli 6.02 target value produced — compared to current price %46.9 undervalued.
Current price: 4.10
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (8/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met.
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
S$1.4
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
18.4x
vs 12.4x
Sector median's %49 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
2.44x
vs 1.49x
Compared to sector %64 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
vs 6.0x
Compared to sector %128 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.3
vs %11.9 WACC
ROIC 7.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%7.6
vs %12.2 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %7.6
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (4.10), TRAMA-99 line's %167.8 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 4.10
TRAMA: 1.53
Difference: %+167.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
XWA — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.