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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
43/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
34/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
49/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Graham ?
A$9.1
Pahalı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
35/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (35/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 2 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 2
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte A$284M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Çok Düşük Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı sadece %1.6. Küçük bir maliyet artışı şirketi zarara sokabilir.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 3.12x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.56x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı (A$628M) kârın %221'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 42.3. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek PD/DD
PD/DD: 10.04. Piyasa defter değerinin çok üstünde fiyatlıyor. Büyüme beklentisi primli.
Data date 2026-10-29 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-29
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%23.0
VaR 95% ?
%2.24
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%3.23
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.75
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%14.7
22.04.2026 → 14.05.2026
Skewness ?
2.16
Parametrik%2.24
Historik%1.74
Cornish-Fisher%0.45
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-26.3%
ROIC ?
-0.5%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (284.5M AUD, %+0.0)
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+18.2
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (17.9B AUD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%+3.6)
Brüt kâr marjı: %27.4
Net kâr marjı düşük: %1.6
FAVÖK yatay seyrede (1.2B AUD)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %6.8
Toplam borç: 16.5B AUD
Net borç: 15.0B AUD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 3.44x
Cari oran < 1: 0.56x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 1.5B AUD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 628.2M AUD
ROE düşük: %5.9
ROA düşük: %0.8
Toplam varlıklar: 34.1B AUD (%+0.0)
Özkaynak: 4.8B AUD (%+0.0)
İşletme kârı negatif: -32.0M AUD — faaliyet zararı
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 5.9x (Faiz: 205.5M AUD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.2B AUD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -6.0B AUD — kısa vadeli baskı
CAPEX: 608.8M AUD (Hasılatın %3.4'i)
Son 8 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 hafif üzerinde: %+2.3
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 38.60 AUD
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %23
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%1.6
Net profit margin %1.6 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%23.7
ROE %23.7 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%6.8
EBITDA margin %6.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%27.4
Gross profit per revenue %27.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%3.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %3.5'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
42.3x
Sector: 24.9x
F/K 42.3x — sector median's (24.9x) %70 above. Expensive zone.
P/B Ratio
10.04x
Sector: 2.96x
PD/DD 10.04x — sector median's %239 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
Sector: 11.2x
EV/EBITDA 13.0x — sector median's (11.2x) %17 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.56x
Current ratio 0.56x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.4x
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.4x — high debt burden. Debt service creating pressure.
Debt / Equity
3.44x
Debt/Equity 3.44x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
5.9x
Interest coverage 5.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+3.6
Revenue YoY %3.6 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+18.2
Net profit YoY %18.2 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 262.6M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 184.1M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
43/100
Moderate robustness (43/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-26.3%
Minus %26.3 expected value (29.10) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: PE target: 23.57 | P/B target: 12.37 | EV/EBITDA target: 33.78
Damodaran Valuation
34/100
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
49/100
High debt risk (49/100). Interest coverage ratio 5.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 3.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 22/100 | Debt Service: 63/100 | Quality: 82/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-0.5
ROIC (%-0.5) cost of capital (8.8%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.8
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Operating cash flow data missing (C3, C4)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
A$9.1
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
42.3x
vs 24.9x
Sector median's %70 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
10.04x
vs 2.96x
Compared to sector %239 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
vs 11.2x
Compared to sector %17 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-0.5
vs %8.8 WACC
ROIC 9.3 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%1.6
vs %6.8 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %1.6
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (39.48), TRAMA-99 line (38.60) at close levels (%+2.3). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 39.48
TRAMA: 38.60
Difference: %+2.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
WOW — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.