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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
39/100
Dalio Risk ?
59/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$61.2
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Valuation
Potential?
-13.2%
ROIC ?
11.2%
DCF Value ?
146.03
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
9622
1988-06-22 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%20.1
VaR 95% ?
%2.09
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%2.95
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.92
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%14.2
09.03.2026 → 29.05.2026
Skewness ?
-0.15
Parametrik%2.09
Historik%1.73
Cornish-Fisher%2.10
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (219.04), TRAMA-99 line (223.97) at close levels (%-2.2). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 219.04
TRAMA: 223.9678
Difference: %-2.2
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%11.8
Net profit margin %11.8 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +2.4 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%13.8
ROE %13.8 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%30.5
EBITDA margin %30.5 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%41.5
Gross profit per revenue %41.5. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%11.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %11.2'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.4x
Sector: 27.7x
F/K 32.4x — sector median's (27.7x) %17 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
8.79x
Sector: 4.59x
PD/DD 8.79x — sector median's %91 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
Sector: 16.3x
EV/EBITDA 15.3x — sector median (16.3x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.89x
Current ratio 0.89x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.2x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.2x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
2.29x
Borç/Özkaynak 2.29x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
7.9x
Interest coverage 7.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+7.1
Revenue YoY %7.1 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+24.1
Net profit YoY %24.1 increased — strong profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
49/100
Moderate robustness (49/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-13.2%
Minus %13.2 expected value (190.57) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 193.04 | P/B target: 122.84 | EV/EBITDA target: 233.69 | DCF target: 146.03
Damodaran Valuation
39/100
Low Damodaran score (39/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
59/100
Moderate debt risk (59/100). Interest coverage ratio 7.9x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 3.2x — manageable.
Leverage: 51/100 | Debt Service: 72/100 | Quality: 98/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%11.2
ROIC (%11.2) slightly exceeds cost of capital (2.7 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %8.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
146.03
DCF (146.03) current price %33.5 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 219.65
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$61.2
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %72.1 üzerinde ($61.2) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
32.4x
vs 27.7x
Sector mediannın %17 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
8.79x
vs 4.59x
Compared to sector %91 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
vs 16.3x
Compared to sector %6 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.2
vs %8.4 WACC
ROIC 2.7 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%10.7
vs %28.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %10.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.