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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
69/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
56/100
Dalio Risk ?
31/100
Piotroski ?
2/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
₺2.6
Ucuz
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
32/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (32/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 7 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte ₺254M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-38.2 geriledi (₺411M → ₺254M). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
4 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 4 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-14.0 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Genişliyor
Brüt kâr marjı %35.3 → %49.3 (+14.1 puan). Fiyatlama gücü artıyor veya maliyetler düşüyor.
Yüksek Net Kâr Marjı
Net kâr marjı %20.6. Her 100₺ satıştan 21₺ kâr kalıyor.
Yüksek Borçluluk
Net borç/özkaynak oranı 2.87x. Yüksek kaldıraç risk taşır, faiz yükü ağır olabilir.
Kârlı ama Nakit Üretemiyor
Net kâr pozitif (₺254M) ama FCF negatif (-₺66M). Yatırım harcamaları yüksek veya alacak birikimi var.
Çok Düşük F/K
Trailing F/K: 3.7. Piyasa şirketi kârına göre düşük fiyatlıyor. Ucuz görünüyor ama sebebi araştırılmalı.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.61. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 15.5. Pahalı değerleme.
Reel Kâr Eriyor
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel kâr %-42.3 düştü. Nominal artış enflasyonu karşılamıyor.
Data date 2026-10-28 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-28
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%37.8
VaR 95% ?
%4.20
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.83
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.05
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%67.6
19.11.2025 → 22.10.2026
Skewness ?
-1.65
Parametrik%4.20
Historik%3.45
Cornish-Fisher%4.58
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+92.8%
ROIC ?
4.1%
DCF Value ?
2.23
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-38.2 düşerek 253.7M TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi sınırlı (%-2.7)
Hasılat çeyreklik %+3.4 büyüdü (1.2B TL)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-14.0)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %49.3
Brüt marj değişimi: %+14.1 puan
Net kâr marjı yüksek: %20.6
FAVÖK yatay seyrede (370.8M TL)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %30.1
Toplam borç: 27.6B TL
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 23.3B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı yüksek: 3.40x
Cari oran: 1.07x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %+11.0 arttı → 4.3B TL
İşletme nakit akışı negatif: -66.0M TL
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -66.0M TL — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE düşük: %3.1
ROA düşük: %0.7
Toplam varlıklar: 38.6B TL (%+4.4)
Özkaynak: 8.1B TL (%+3.2)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 446.7M TL
İşletme kârı büyüme: %+22.0
Faiz karşılama oranı düşük: 0.5x — borç servisi riski
Ödenmiş sermaye: 6.0B TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 1.3B TL
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-83.6
Son 6 çeyrek ardışık kâr
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-21.8 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 1.06 TL
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 42.3% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real gross margin 35.3% → 49.3% (expanded)
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺254M | ₺254M | %-42.3 | ₺1.2B | ₺1.2B | %12.5 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺411M | ₺439M | %-42.4 | ₺1.2B | ₺1.3B | %20.9 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺648M | ₺763M | %+1142.1 | ₺1.3B | ₺1.6B | %34.8 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺50M | ₺61M | %-82.2 | — | — | — |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺261M | ₺344M | %-14.2 | ₺1.4B | ₺1.9B | %16.6 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺287M | ₺401M | — | ₺1.5B | ₺2.1B | %19.1 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%20.6
Net profit margin %20.6 — very strong. Compared to previous quarter -13.9 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%17.1
ROE %17.1 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%30.1
EBITDA margin %30.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%49.3
Gross profit per revenue %49.3. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%41.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %41.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
3.7x
Sector: 22.4x
F/K 3.7x — sector median's (22.4x) %84 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
0.61x
Sector: 1.88x
PD/DD 0.61x — sector median's (1.88x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
Sector: 6.4x
EV/EBITDA 15.5x — sector median's (6.4x) %144 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.07x
Current ratio 1.07x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
15.2x
Net Debt/EBITDA 15.2x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
3.40x
Debt/Equity 3.40x — very high leverage.
Interest Coverage
0.6x
Interest coverage 0.6x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-14.0
Revenue YoY %-14.0 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-2.7
Net profit YoY %-2.7 declined — profitability under pressure.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
69/100
Good robustness (69/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+92.8%
Plus %92.8 expected value (1.60) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 2.49 | P/B target: 2.49 | EV/EBITDA target: 0.34 | DCF target: 2.23
Damodaran Valuation
56/100
Moderate Damodaran score (56/100). ROIC (%4.1) – WACC (%13.4) difference -9.3 bps. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
31/100
High debt risk (31/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.6x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 15.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 8/100 | Debt Service: 34/100 | Quality: 86/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%4.1
ROIC (%4.1) cost of capital (13.4%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %13.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
2.23
DCF modeli 2.23 target value produced — compared to current price %168.2 undervalued.
Current price: 0.83
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Weak Piotroski (2/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
₺2.6
Graham value (₺2.6) current price %213.3 above — attractive for value investing.
Cheap
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
3.7x
vs 22.4x
Sector median's %84 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
0.61x
vs 1.88x
Compared to sector %67 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
vs 6.4x
Compared to sector %144 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.1
vs %13.4 WACC
ROIC 9.3 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%30.3
vs %35.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %30.3
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (0.83), TRAMA-99 line's %21.8 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 0.83
TRAMA: 1.06
Difference: %-21.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.