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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
66/100
Dalio Risk ?
43/100
Piotroski ?
7/9
Strong
prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$111.5
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+107.5%
ROIC ?
10.5%
DCF Value ?
338.31
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
5177
2006-02-06 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%47.4
VaR 95% ?
%4.86
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.89
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.37
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%27.5
06.01.2026 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.52
Parametrik%4.86
Historik%4.39
Cornish-Fisher%4.35
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (108.35), TRAMA-99 line (105.05) at close levels (%+3.1). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 108.35
TRAMA: 105.0502
Difference: %+3.1
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%4.8
Net profit margin %4.8 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -2.0 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%17.3
ROE %17.3 — moderate return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%7.8
EBITDA margin %7.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%25.1
Gross profit per revenue %25.1. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%5.3
TTM Free Cash Flow is %5.3'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.7x
Sector: 29.6x
F/K 9.7x — sector median's (29.6x) %67 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
2.24x
Sector: 4.58x
PD/DD 2.24x — sector median's (4.58x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 10.1x — sector median's (15.6x) %36 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.70x
Current ratio 0.70x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 5.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.95x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.95x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
5.2x
Interest coverage 5.2x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.6
Revenue YoY %10.6 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+80.6
Net profit YoY %80.6 increased (2026/3) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
74/100
Very strong robustness score (74/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+107.5%
Plus %107.5 expected value (227.27) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 328.50 | P/B target: 238.84 | EV/EBITDA target: 170.28 | DCF target: 328.50
Damodaran Valuation
66/100
Moderate Damodaran score (66/100). ROIC (%10.5) – WACC (%7.0) farkı +3.4 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
43/100
High debt risk (43/100). Interest coverage ratio 5.2x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 5.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 17/100 | Debt Service: 62/100 | Quality: 80/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%10.5
ROIC (%10.5) slightly exceeds cost of capital (3.4 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %7.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
338.31
DCF modeli 338.31 target value produced — compared to current price %209.0 undervalued.
Current price: 109.50
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met. Note: prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
$111.5
Graham value ($111.5) near current price (%+1.8). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.7x
vs 29.6x
Sector mediannın %67 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.24x
vs 4.58x
Compared to sector %51 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %36 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%10.5
vs %7.0 WACC
ROIC 3.4 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.1
vs %9.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
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■ 13G pasif
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.