TGAThungela Resources Limited

🇿🇦 Güney Afrika Borsası
14718.00
ZAR
Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
36/100
Weak
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
8/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
69/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -55.8824 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
1/4
Confidence?
48%
Lothien Robustness Summary
36/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Zayıf (36/100)
Olumsuz göstergeler ağır basıyor. Finansal yapıda zayıflıklar mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 5 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 0
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -R5.9B zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Düşüşü
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %-235.8 geriledi (-R1.8B → -R5.9B). Kısa vadede olumsuz sinyal.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-235.8 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Satış gelirleri çeyreklik %+304.9 arttı (R7.4B → R30.0B). Talep güçlü.
Yıllık Hasılat Büyümesi Güçlü
Yıllık hasılat %+304.9 arttı. Şirket büyüyor.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %57.0 → %51.9 (-5.1 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
Net Nakit Pozisyonu
Şirketin nakdi borçlarından R6.0B fazla. Borç riski düşük.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+296.4 arttı (-R998M → R2.0B). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-57.2. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+48.1 artabilir (-R5.9B → -R3.1B).

Data date 2026-10-27 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed

Score record
Data date 2026-10-27
Update frequency Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run

Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.

AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.

Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.

WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.

Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error

Risk Analysis (VaR) Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%61.5
VaR 95% ?
%6.03
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.67
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.18
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%48.6
20.03.2026 → 09.07.2026
Skewness ?
0.05
Parametrik%6.03
Historik%5.92
Cornish-Fisher%5.70
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+3.4%
ROIC ?
-11.9%
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis? Q2026/6
Yıllık net kâr %-235.8 geriledi
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+304.9)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %51.9
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-19.9 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %6.5
Toplam borç: 77.0M ZAR
Net nakit pozisyonunda: -6.0B ZAR (borçsuz)
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.00x
Cari oran: 1.62x — yeterli likidite
Nakit ve benzerleri: 6.1B ZAR
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 3.8B ZAR
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 1.0B ZAR
ROE negatif: %-34.6 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-15.6
Ödenmiş sermaye: 127.1M ZAR
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 5.2B ZAR
Son 5 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 üzerinde: %+22.3 — teknik trend olumlu
Destek seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 12036.89 ZAR
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin %-19.9
Net profit margin %-19.9 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +4.1 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM) %-57.2
ROE %-57.2 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin %6.5
EBITDA margin %6.5 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin %51.9
Gross profit per revenue %51.9. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM) %0.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %0.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio 1.09x Sector: 1.42x
PD/DD 1.09x — sector median (1.42x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio 1.62x
Current ratio 1.62x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Debt / Equity 0.00x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage -9.3x
Interest coverage -9.3x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY) %+304.9
Revenue YoY %304.9 grew (2026/6) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY) %-235.8
Loss %235.8 increased — losses deepening.
Seasonality Analysis Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit -436.6M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit -2.3B).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
36/100
Weak robustness (36/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
+3.4%
Plus %3.4 expected value (15216.86) vs current price comparison. 1/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %48.
Components: P/B target: 15757.30
Damodaran Valuation
8/100
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
69/100
Moderate debt risk (69/100). Interest coverage ratio -9.3x — weak, fragile.
Leverage: 100/100 | Debt Service: 81/100 | Quality: 18/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%-11.9
ROIC (%-11.9) cost of capital (17.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %17.6
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -55.8824 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
1.09x vs 1.42x
Compared to sector %23 cheaper (by book value)
ROIC vs WACC
%-11.9 vs %17.6 WACC
ROIC 29.5 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-21.6 vs %-2.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-21.6
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (14718.00), TRAMA-99 line's %22.3 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 14718.00
TRAMA: 12036.89
Difference: %+22.3
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation ?
RSI thresholds ?

Price Chart ?
RSI (14) ?
Bollinger Bands ?
MACD ?
Gold-Based Price + TRAMA (Stock / Gram Gold) ?
P/E Ratio ?
P/B Ratio ?
EBITDA ?
Net Working Capital ?
Current Ratio ?
TGA — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.