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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
35/100
Dalio Risk ?
92/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
$40.7
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
+17.9%
ROIC ?
4.3%
DCF Value ?
45.55
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
10579
1984-09-07 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%48.5
VaR 95% ?
%4.99
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%7.07
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.99
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%36.7
22.09.2025 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.20
Parametrik%4.99
Historik%5.23
Cornish-Fisher%4.64
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (71.67), TRAMA-99 line's %5.8 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 71.67
TRAMA: 67.7109
Difference: %+5.8
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%3.6
Net profit margin %3.6 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter -0.1 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%5.0
ROE %5.0 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%18.3
EBITDA margin %18.3 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%40.1
Gross profit per revenue %40.1. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%10.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %10.2'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.9x
Sector: 51.6x
F/K 36.9x — sector medianna (51.6x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
1.87x
Sector: 4.59x
PD/DD 1.87x — sector median's (4.59x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
Sector: 20.6x
EV/EBITDA 13.0x — sector median's (20.6x) %37 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.10x
Current ratio 3.10x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.8x
Net Borç/EBITDA 0.8x — very low debt burden. Company can repay debt quickly.
Debt / Equity
0.12x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
32.1x
Interest coverage 32.1x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-3.1
Revenue YoY %-3.1 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-67.7
Net profit YoY %-67.7 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 101.0M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 86.6M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
58/100
Good robustness (58/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+17.9%
Plus %17.9 expected value (83.94) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 78.52 | P/B target: 177.41 | EV/EBITDA target: 112.90 | DCF target: 45.55
Damodaran Valuation
35/100
Low Damodaran score (35/100). ROIC (%4.3) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
92/100
Low debt risk (92/100). Interest coverage ratio 32.1x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 0.8x — in healthy range.
Leverage: 89/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 75/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%4.3
ROIC (%4.3) cost of capitaln (10.9%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.9
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
45.55
DCF (45.55) current price %36.0 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 71.17
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$40.7
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %42.8 üzerinde ($40.7) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
36.9x
vs 51.6x
Sector mediannın %28 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.87x
vs 4.59x
Compared to sector %59 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
vs 20.6x
Compared to sector %37 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%4.3
vs %10.9 WACC
ROIC 6.6 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%7.2
vs %20.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %7.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
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■ 13G pasif
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.