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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
51/100
Dalio Risk ?
56/100
Piotroski ?
8/9
Strong
prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$74.1
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+64.1%
ROIC ?
7.5%
DCF Value ?
155.51
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
11712
1980-03-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%36.3
VaR 95% ?
%3.62
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.18
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.45
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%26.9
20.02.2026 → 15.04.2026
Skewness ?
0.11
Parametrik%3.62
Historik%3.05
Cornish-Fisher%3.53
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (96.89), TRAMA-99 line's %17.7 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 96.89
TRAMA: 82.319
Difference: %+17.7
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%8.9
Net profit margin %8.9 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +7.3 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%6.9
ROE %6.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%18.3
EBITDA margin %18.3 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%33.0
Gross profit per revenue %33.0. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%8.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %8.5'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.5x
Sector: 27.7x
F/K 23.5x — sector medianna (27.7x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
1.63x
Sector: 4.59x
PD/DD 1.63x — sector median's (4.59x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Sector: 16.3x
EV/EBITDA 10.3x — sector median's (16.3x) %37 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.43x
Current ratio 1.43x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.6x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.53x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.53x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
3.9x
Interest coverage 3.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+0.4
Revenue YoY %0.4 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+244.7
Net profit YoY %244.7 increased (2026/6) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
73/100
Very strong robustness score (73/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+64.1%
Plus %64.1 expected value (158.30) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 134.66 | P/B target: 277.17 | EV/EBITDA target: 152.50 | DCF target: 155.51
Damodaran Valuation
51/100
Moderate Damodaran score (51/100). ROIC (%7.5) – WACC (%9.5) farkı -2.0 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
56/100
Moderate debt risk (56/100). Interest coverage ratio 3.9x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 2.6x — manageable.
Leverage: 77/100 | Debt Service: 72/100 | Quality: 47/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%7.5
ROIC (%7.5) cost of capitaln (9.5%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %9.5
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
155.51
DCF modeli 155.51 target value produced — compared to current price %61.2 undervalued.
Current price: 96.46
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
Strong Piotroski F-Score (8/9). Profitability, leverage and operational efficiency criteria are largely met. Note: prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Strong
Graham Intrinsic Value
$74.1
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %23.2 üzerinde ($74.1) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
23.5x
vs 27.7x
Sector mediannın %15 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.63x
vs 4.59x
Compared to sector %65 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
vs 16.3x
Compared to sector %37 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%7.5
vs %9.5 WACC
ROIC 2.0 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%4.1
vs %11.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %4.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.