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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
45/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
$27.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
67%
Valuation
Potential?
+21.0%
ROIC ?
5.2%
DCF Value ?
22.50
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
11712
1980-03-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Düşük
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%17.6
VaR 95% ?
%1.83
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%2.59
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%2.40
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%14.2
09.04.2026 → 28.08.2026
Skewness ?
-0.07
Parametrik%1.83
Historik%1.80
Cornish-Fisher%1.85
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (34.54), TRAMA-99 line (36.33) at close levels (%-4.9). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 34.54
TRAMA: 36.3286
Difference: %-4.9
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%16.3
Net profit margin %16.3 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +4.6 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%6.9
ROE %6.9 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%42.3
EBITDA margin %42.3 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%43.9
Gross profit per revenue %43.9. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-17.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-17.4'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.2x
Sector: 23.4x
F/K 21.2x — sector medianna (23.4x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
1.72x
Sector: 3.22x
PD/DD 1.72x — sector median's (3.22x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
Sector: 14.4x
EV/EBITDA 11.7x — sector median (14.4x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.00x
Current ratio 1.00x — borderline, attention required.
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.3x
Net Borç/EBITDA 5.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
1.35x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.35x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
4.5x
Interest coverage 4.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.8
Revenue YoY %10.8 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+9.2
Net profit YoY %9.2 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
61/100
Good robustness (61/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+21.0%
Plus %21.0 expected value (41.61) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %67.
Components: PE target: 45.38 | P/B target: 65.98 | EV/EBITDA target: 42.20 | DCF target: 22.50
Damodaran Valuation
45/100
Low Damodaran score (45/100). ROIC (%5.2) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.5x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 5.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 57/100 | Debt Service: 66/100 | Quality: 88/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%5.2
ROIC (%5.2) cost of capitaln (6.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %6.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
22.50
DCF (22.50) current price %34.6 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 34.40
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$27.0
Güncel fiyat Graham valuenin %21.5 üzerinde ($27.0) — Expensive by Graham.
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
21.2x
vs 23.4x
Sector mediannın %9 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
1.72x
vs 3.22x
Compared to sector %46 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
vs 14.4x
Compared to sector %18 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%5.2
vs %6.6 WACC
ROIC 1.4 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%13.1
vs %41.0 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %13.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.