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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
21/100
Very Weak
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
15/100
Dalio Risk ?
33/100
Piotroski ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Graham ?
-
Bilanço dosyası bulunamadı
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Lothien Robustness Summary
0/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (0/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Olumsuz | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 1 | Negatif: 10 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -₺314M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%-8.9). İstikrarlı seyir.
5 Çeyrek Üst Üste Düşüş
Son 5 çeyrek üst üste kâr düşüyor. Aşağı trend endişe verici. Sonraki çeyreğe dikkat.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-23.8 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Brüt Marj Daraldı
Brüt kâr marjı %26.6 → %-21.8 (-48.4 puan). Maliyet baskısı veya rekabet artıyor.
FAVÖK Düşüşü
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-171.0 düştü. Operasyonel performans zayıflıyor.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 85.0. Pahalı değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-10.1. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Lothien Sağlamlık Skoru: 21/100
Bileşik algoritma değerlendirmesine göre şirketin finansal yapısı zayıf görünüyor.
Reel Kâr Eriyor
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel kâr %-201.7 düştü. Nominal artış enflasyonu karşılamıyor.
Reel Hasılat Daralması
Enflasyon düzeltmesi sonrası reel hasılat %-19.0 düştü. Şirket reel olarak küçülüyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+88.0 artabilir (-₺314M → -₺38M).
Data date 2026-10-28 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-28
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%84.8
VaR 95% ?
%8.71
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%12.35
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.99
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%96.1
15.09.2026 → 28.10.2026
Skewness ?
-0.24
Parametrik%8.71
Historik%9.98
Cornish-Fisher%9.07
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
-39.2%
ROIC ?
1.7%
DCF Value ?
53.14
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %-8.9 düşerek -314.4M TL oldu
Yıllık net kâr %-13.6 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik %-13.3 düştü (700.7M TL)
Yıllık hasılat daraldı (%-23.8)
Brüt kâr marjı düşük: %-21.8
Brüt marj değişimi: %-48.4 puan
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-44.9 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK çeyreklik %-171.0 düştü (-152.7M TL)
FAVÖK marjı düşük: %-21.8
Toplam borç: 1.9B TL
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 1.9B TL
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.42x
Cari oran: 1.72x — yeterli likidite
Nakit %-94.1 azaldı → 18.5M TL
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 522.1M TL
Serbest nakit akışı negatif: -75.6M TL — yatırımlar nakdi aşıyor
ROE negatif: %-7.0 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-4.0
Toplam varlıklar: 7.8B TL (%+4.3)
Özkaynak: 4.5B TL (%+0.5)
İşletme kârı negatif: -202.0M TL — faaliyet zararı
Ödenmiş sermaye: 71.3M TL
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 972.2M TL
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %-23.2
CAPEX: 124.5M TL (Hasılatın %17.8'i)
Son 3 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-51.1 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 392.59 TL
Inflation Adjusted Data?
Real net profit fell 201.7% — nominal growth cannot offset inflation
Real revenue fell 19.0% — insufficient pricing power
Reel brüt kâr marjı %26.6 → %-21.8 (daraldı)
Reel özkaynak son 15 çeyrekte %61 arttı — gerçek sermaye birikimi
Reel ROE %-27.8 — enflasyon düzeltmesinden sonra zarar
Yıllık %32 enflasyon altında eziliyor — reel küçülme
| Quarter | CPI YoY | Deflator | Nominal Net Profit | Real Net Profit | Real Growth | Nominal Revenue | Real Revenue | Reel ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/6 | %32 | ×1.00 | ₺-314M | ₺-314M | %-201.7 | ₺701M | ₺701M | %-27.8 |
| 2026/3 | %31 | ×1.07 | ₺-289M | ₺-309M | %-375.3 | ₺808M | ₺865M | %-25.7 |
| 2025/12 | %31 | ×1.18 | ₺-95M | ₺-112M | %-137.2 | ₺937M | ₺1.1B | %-7.5 |
| 2025/9 | %33 | ×1.23 | ₺246M | ₺302M | %-17.4 | ₺435M | ₺535M | %23.2 |
| 2025/6 | %35 | ×1.32 | ₺-277M | ₺-365M | %-1213.4 | ₺919M | ₺1.2B | %-29.4 |
| 2025/3 | %38 | ×1.40 | ₺-23M | ₺-33M | %-328.0 | ₺602M | ₺843M | %-2.5 |
| 2024/12 | %44 | ×1.54 | ₺-9M | ₺-14M | %-130.0 | ₺451M | ₺696M | %-0.8 |
| 2024/9 | %49 | ×1.64 | ₺29M | ₺48M | %-81.1 | ₺734M | ₺1.2B | %3.6 |
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-44.9
Net profit margin %-44.9 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -9.1 point decrease.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-10.1
ROE %-10.1 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%-21.8
EBITDA margin %-21.8 — operational loss.
Gross Profit Margin
%-21.8
Gross profit per revenue %-21.8. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-14.1
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-14.1'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
3.03x
Sector: 1.88x
PD/DD 3.03x — sector median's %61 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
85.0x
Sector: 6.4x
EV/EBITDA 85.0x — sector median's (6.4x) %1233 above. Expensive relative to EBITDA.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.72x
Current ratio 1.72x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 10.3x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.42x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
0.3x
Interest coverage 0.3x — critical level. Risk of difficulty in interest payments.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-23.8
Revenue YoY %-23.8 declined — significant revenue drop.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-13.6
Loss %13.6 increased — losses deepening.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 137.4M). Weakest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit -149.6M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
21/100
Very weak robustness (21/100). Multiple critical indicators are red: high debt, low profitability or excessive valuation.
Very Weak
Potential
-39.2%
Minus %39.2 expected value (116.66) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %64.
Components: P/B target: 117.83 | EV/EBITDA target: 47.95 | DCF target: 53.14
Damodaran Valuation
15/100
Low Damodaran score (15/100). ROIC (%1.7) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
33/100
High debt risk (33/100). Interest coverage ratio 0.3x — weak, fragile. Debt/EBITDA 10.3x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 45/100 | Debt Service: 47/100 | Quality: 24/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.7
ROIC (%1.7) cost of capital (41.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %41.6
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
53.14
DCF (53.14) current price %72.3 below — cash flows do not support current price.
Current price: 191.80
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
—
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
3.03x
vs 1.88x
Compared to sector %61 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
85.0x
vs 6.4x
Compared to sector %1233 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.7
vs %41.6 WACC
ROIC 39.9 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-15.7
vs %6.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-15.7
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (191.80), TRAMA-99 line's %51.1 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 191.80
TRAMA: 392.59
Difference: %-51.1
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.