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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
57/100
Strong
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
44/100
Dalio Risk ?
78/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
$26.0
Pahalı
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Lothien Robustness Summary
71/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Güçlü (71/100)
Genel tablo olumlu. Finansal yapı sağlam, bazı riskler mevcut. | Kısa Vade: Olumlu | Uzun Vade: Nötr | Pozitif: 7 | Negatif: 4 | Nötr: 0
Net Kâr Pozitif
Son çeyrekte $227M net kâr açıklandı. Şirket kârlı.
Çeyreklik Kâr Artışı
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre %+779.0 arttı (-$33M → $227M). Kısa vadede olumlu momentum.
Yıllık Kâr Büyümesi Güçlü
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %+33.2 arttı. Büyüme trendi sağlıklı.
3 Çeyrek Üst Üste Artış
Son 3 çeyrek üst üste kâr artıyor. Güçlü yukarı trend devam ediyor.
Güçlü Likidite
Cari oran 3.46x — kısa vadeli borçları rahat karşılıyor.
Borç Hızla Artıyor
Toplam borç çeyreklik %+49.1 arttı. Finansman maliyetleri yükselir.
Güçlü Nakit Üretimi
Serbest nakit akışı ($425M) kârın %188'sini nakit olarak üretiyor. Kâr kalitesi yüksek.
FAVÖK Büyümesi
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+67.2 arttı ($255M → $426M). Operasyonel verimlilik artıyor.
Yüksek F/K Uyarısı
Trailing F/K: 45.5. Piyasa yüksek büyüme bekliyor ya da hisse pahalı. Büyüme gerçekleşmezse düşüş riski yüksek.
Yüksek EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 18.9. Pahalı değerleme.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Düşüş Beklentisi
Tahminine göre kâr %-30.2 düşebilir. Sonraki bilançoya dikkat.
Data date 2026-10-26 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-26
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%61.0
VaR 95% ?
%6.10
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.72
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%8.09
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%50.3
03.06.2026 → 16.09.2026
Skewness ?
-0.55
Parametrik%6.10
Historik%4.85
Cornish-Fisher%6.33
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+4.6%
ROIC ?
11.5%
DCF Value ?
73.61
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik %+779.0 artarak 226.8M USD oldu
Yıllık net kâr büyümesi %+33.2
Hasılat çeyreklik %+6.0 büyüdü (1.6B USD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi güçlü (%+9.2)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %38.4
Net kâr marjı: %14.1
FAVÖK çeyreklik %+67.2 büyüdü (425.9M USD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %26.6
Toplam borç %+49.1 arttı → 4.5B USD
Net borç: 968.2M USD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı: 0.62x
Cari oran güçlü: 3.46x — yükümlülükler rahat karşılanıyor
Nakit %+75.4 arttı → 3.5B USD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 459.7M USD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 425.4M USD
ROE düşük: %3.1
ROA düşük: %1.7
Toplam varlıklar %+12.3 büyüdü → 13.5B USD
Özkaynak: 7.2B USD (%-1.1)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 299.8M USD
Ödenmiş sermaye: 389.3M USD
Net işletme sermayesi pozitif: 5.2B USD
İşletme sermayesi değişimi: %+12.8
CAPEX: 34.3M USD (Hasılatın %2.1'i)
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-9.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 81.96 USD
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%14.1
Net profit margin %14.1 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +16.4 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%8.7
ROE %8.7 — low return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%26.6
EBITDA margin %26.6 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%38.4
Gross profit per revenue %38.4. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%24.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %24.2'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
45.5x
Sector: 53.5x
F/K 45.5x — sector median (53.5x) near reasonable levels.
P/B Ratio
3.97x
Sector: 4.50x
PD/DD 3.97x — sector median (4.50x) below or near. Reasonable valuation.
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
Sector: 21.6x
EV/EBITDA 18.9x — sector median (21.6x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
3.46x
Current ratio 3.46x — current assets are 2x short-term liabilities. Very healthy liquidity.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.9x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.9x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.62x
Debt/Equity 0.62x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
32.9x
Interest coverage 32.9x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+9.2
Revenue YoY %9.2 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+33.2
Net profit YoY %33.2 increased — strong profit growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 328.4M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -22.2M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
57/100
Good robustness (57/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+4.6%
Plus %4.6 expected value (77.04) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 73.34 | P/B target: 85.17 | EV/EBITDA target: 84.02 | DCF target: 73.61
Damodaran Valuation
44/100
Low Damodaran score (44/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
78/100
Low debt risk (78/100). Interest coverage ratio 32.9x — strong. Debt/EBITDA 2.9x — manageable.
Leverage: 56/100 | Debt Service: 100/100 | Quality: 57/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%11.5
ROIC (%11.5) slightly exceeds cost of capital (1.5 points).
WACC: %10.0
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
73.61
DCF (73.61) near current price (%-0.0) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 73.64
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$26.0
Expensive
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
45.5x
vs 53.5x
Sector median's %15 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
3.97x
vs 4.50x
Compared to sector %12 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
vs 21.6x
Compared to sector %12 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%11.5
vs %10.0 WACC
ROIC 1.5 bps above cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%10.2
vs %25.3 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %10.2
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (74.06), TRAMA-99 line's %9.6 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 74.06
TRAMA: 81.96
Difference: %-9.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
ON — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.