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Analysis Scores
Lothien Robustness Score?
55/100
Moderate
The factor score and time-horizon weights were measured only on the past data of companies that trade today; companies that left the exchange in the past are not part of this measurement.
Neden bu skor?
Damodaran ?
38/100
Dalio Risk ?
51/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.0030 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Lothien Robustness Summary
24/100
Lothien Sağlamlık: Çok Zayıf (24/100)
Temel göstergelerin çoğu olumsuz. Lothien sağlamlık skoru düşük seviyede. | Kısa Vade: Nötr | Uzun Vade: Olumsuz | Pozitif: 3 | Negatif: 5 | Nötr: 1
Net Zarar
Son çeyrekte -S$1M zarar açıklandı. Yatırımcı dikkatli olmalı.
Kâr Stabil
Net kâr bir önceki çeyreğe göre fazla değişmedi (%+0.0). İstikrarlı seyir.
Yıllık Kâr Geriledi
Geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre net kâr %-169.8 düştü. Uzun vadede endişe verici.
Yıllık Hasılatta Daralma
Yıllık hasılat %-4.4 düştü. Şirket daralmada.
Likidite Riski
Cari oran 0.75x — kısa vadeli borçları karşılama kapasitesi düşük. Nakit sıkışıklığı riski var.
Defter Değerinin Altında
PD/DD: 0.23. Hisse defter değerinin altında işlem görüyor. Değer tuzağı mı yoksa fırsat mı iyi analiz edilmeli.
Düşük EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA: 4.9. Operasyonel kârlılığa göre ucuz değerleme.
Negatif ROE
ROE: %-0.9. Şirket özsermayesini eritiyor.
Sonraki Çeyrek: Artış Beklentisi
Pusla tahminine göre bir sonraki çeyrekte kâr %+23.8 artabilir (-S$1M → -S$1M).
Data date 2026-10-23 Not investment advice; the figures are rule-based model output. How the scores are computed
Score record
Method
How the scores are computed
· Scorecard
Data date
2026-10-23
Update frequency
Scheduled analysis run on business days at 19:30 Istanbul time; not every symbol is refreshed in every run
Method summaryThe Lothien Robustness Score (0-100) is a weighted combination of sub-scores computed by fixed rules from published financial statements and price data (Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk, Piotroski F-score, earnings quality, momentum and others). The rules are applied automatically to every covered stock, with weights that vary by sector.
AssumptionsCalculations rest on the company's latest published financial statements and on price data that may be delayed. Where four quarters have not been published, annual figures may be scaled from the available quarters. Model parameters such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and long-term growth are fixed assumptions per exchange and contain no company-specific expectation.
Conflict of interestNo statement has been published on whether MIDAK, the operator of Lothien, or its team hold positions in these stocks. The figures are produced automatically by the same rules, without regard to any such position.
WarningThis information is not within the scope of investment advisory services and is not investment advice. The figures are the output of rule-based models and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Making an investment decision on the basis of this information alone may not lead to results that meet your expectations.
Model output; not investment advice; different models can disagree. Report an error
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%64.6
VaR 95% ?
%6.56
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%9.33
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.68
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%56.0
19.01.2026 → 12.10.2026
Skewness ?
1.72
Parametrik%6.56
Historik%4.52
Cornish-Fisher%3.61
Return Distribution
Valuation
Potential?
+62.5%
ROIC ?
1.1%
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Balance Sheet Analysis?
Q2026/6
Net kâr çeyreklik yatay seyrede (-1.3M SGD, %+0.0)
Yıllık net kâr %-169.8 geriledi
Hasılat çeyreklik yatay kaldı (26.7M SGD)
Yıllık hasılat büyümesi ılımlı (%-4.4)
Brüt kâr marjı güçlü: %227.6
Net kâr marjı negatif: %-5.0 — zarar ediyor
FAVÖK yatay seyrede (10.3M SGD)
FAVÖK marjı güçlü: %38.5
Toplam borç: 93.4M SGD
Net borç hasılatın üzerinde: 54.3M SGD
Borç/Özkaynak oranı düşük: 0.15x
Cari oran < 1: 0.75x — likidite riski
Nakit ve benzerleri: 39.2M SGD
İşletme nakit akışı pozitif: 3.1M SGD
Serbest nakit akışı pozitif: 772,250 SGD
ROE negatif: %-0.2 — zarar var
ROA düşük: %-0.1
Toplam varlıklar: 969.9M SGD (%+0.0)
Özkaynak: 631.3M SGD (%+0.0)
İşletme kârı pozitif: 2.2M SGD
Faiz karşılama oranı güçlü: 4.1x (Faiz: 2.5M SGD)
Ödenmiş sermaye: 1.8B SGD
Net işletme sermayesi negatif: -25.7M SGD — kısa vadeli baskı
CAPEX: 2.4M SGD (Hasılatın %8.9'i)
Son 4 çeyrek ardışık zarar
Fiyat TRAMA-99 altında: %-27.6 — teknik trend olumsuz
Direnç seviyesi: TRAMA-99 = 0.11 SGD
Sabit varlık ağırlıklı bilanço: Dönen varlıklar %8
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-5.0
Net profit margin %-5.0 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE - Return on Equity (TTM)
%-0.9
ROE %-0.9 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%38.5
EBITDA margin %38.5 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%227.6
Gross profit per revenue %227.6. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%2.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %2.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.23x
Sector: 1.49x
PD/DD 0.23x — sector median's (1.49x) well below. Cheap relative to book value.
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
Sector: 6.0x
EV/EBITDA 4.9x — sector median (6.0x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.75x
Current ratio 0.75x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.3x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.3x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
0.15x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.1x
Interest coverage 4.1x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-4.4
Revenue YoY %-4.4 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-169.8
Net profit YoY %-169.8 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q4 (Eki-Ara)
Historically strongest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit 290.9K). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit -1.4M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
55/100
Moderate robustness (55/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+62.5%
Plus %62.5 expected value (0.13) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models could be calculated. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 0.24 | EV/EBITDA target: 0.10
Damodaran Valuation
38/100
Low Damodaran score (38/100). ROIC (%1.1) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
51/100
Moderate debt risk (51/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.1x — acceptable. Debt/EBITDA 2.3x — manageable.
Leverage: 84/100 | Debt Service: 57/100 | Quality: 38/100
ROIC - Return on Capital
%1.1
ROIC (%1.1) cost of capital (11.7%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %11.7
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing. Note: gross profit, prev year gross profit data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8)
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.0030 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.23x
vs 1.49x
Compared to sector %85 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
vs 6.0x
Compared to sector %18 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.1
vs %11.7 WACC
ROIC 10.6 bps below cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-5.0
vs %38.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-5.0
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Downtrend
Price (0.08), TRAMA-99 line's %27.6 below. Significant downtrend. TRAMA line acts as strong technical resistance.
Price:: 0.08
TRAMA: 0.11
Difference: %-27.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
NR7 — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.