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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
12/100
DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik)
Dalio Risk ?
49/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.2455 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Valuation
Potential?
-38.2%
ROIC ?
-3.1%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
1753
2019-09-13 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Çok Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%62.2
VaR 95% ?
%6.25
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%8.92
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%9.09
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%36.8
31.10.2025 → 23.02.2026
Skewness ?
-0.63
Parametrik%6.25
Historik%5.44
Cornish-Fisher%6.41
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (272.74), TRAMA-99 line's %7.2 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 272.74
TRAMA: 254.4453
Difference: %+7.2
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-3.6
Net profit margin %-3.6 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -1.6 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-2.4
ROE %-2.4 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%6.1
EBITDA margin %6.1 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%71.2
Gross profit per revenue %71.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%12.5
TTM Free Cash Flow is %12.5'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
57.84x
Sector: 4.59x
PD/DD 57.84x — sector median's %1160 above. Expensive book value.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.96x
Current ratio 1.96x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
25.6x
Net Borç/EBITDA 25.6x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
2.31x
Borç/Özkaynak 2.31x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
2507.0x
Interest coverage 2507.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+33.5
Revenue YoY %33.5 grew (2026/3) — strong growth. Sector expansion and/or market share increase.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+40.4
Loss %40.4 decreased — improvement continues.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
27/100
Weak robustness (27/100). Valuation metrics and/or debt profile are unfavorable; caution is needed.
Weak
Potential
-38.2%
Minus %38.2 expected value (169.02) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 68.43 | EV/EBITDA target: 68.43
Damodaran Valuation
12/100
Low Damodaran score (12/100). ROIC (%-3.1) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price. Minusk/sorunlu: DCF hesaplanamadı (faaliyet kârı veya nakit akışı eksik).
Very Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
49/100
High debt risk (49/100). Interest coverage ratio 2507.0x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 25.6x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 0/100 | Debt Service: 99/100 | Quality: 28/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%-3.1
ROIC (%-3.1) cost of capitaln (10.6%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %10.6
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -0.2455 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
57.84x
vs 4.59x
Compared to sector %1160 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
659.2x
vs 21.8x
Compared to sector %2918 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%-3.1
vs %10.6 WACC
ROIC 13.7 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-3.7
vs %5.9 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-3.7
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.