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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
57/100
Dalio Risk ?
54/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
64%
Valuation
Potential?
+10.8%
ROIC ?
18.1%
DCF Value ?
431.50
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
3667
2011-11-21 → 2026-09-02
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%27.3
VaR 95% ?
%2.89
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.06
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.09
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%30.2
20.02.2026 → 17.07.2026
Skewness ?
-2.02
Parametrik%2.89
Historik%1.98
Cornish-Fisher%2.98
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Downtrend
Price (185.75), TRAMA-99 line's %13.4 below. Downtrend ongoing — technical outlook negative. Pressure may continue until TRAMA is broken above.
Price:: 185.75
TRAMA: 214.4418
Difference: %-13.4
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%6.0
Net profit margin %6.0 — positive but low. Compared to previous quarter +0.0 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-347.8
ROE %-347.8 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%41.1
EBITDA margin %41.1 — operationally very efficient.
Gross Profit Margin
%64.4
Gross profit per revenue %64.4. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%14.4
TTM Free Cash Flow is %14.4'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.6x
Sector: 5.9x
F/K 9.6x — sector median's (5.9x) %63 above. Expensive zone.
EV/EBITDA
3.9x
Sector: 3.6x
EV/EBITDA 3.9x — sector median's (3.6x) %7 above. EBITDA’ya göre pahalı.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
0.55x
Current ratio 0.55x — short-term liabilities exceed current assets. Liquidity risk.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.8x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.8x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
-67.22x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
4.0x
Interest coverage 4.0x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+2.6
Revenue YoY %2.6 grew — positive but slow growth.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-48.7
Net profit YoY %-48.7 declined (2022/12) — serious profit erosion.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
52/100
Moderate robustness (52/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
+10.8%
Plus %10.8 expected value (205.76) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %64.
Components: PE target: 110.36 | EV/EBITDA target: 173.44 | DCF target: 431.50
Damodaran Valuation
57/100
Moderate Damodaran score (57/100). ROIC (%18.1) – WACC (%17.3) farkı +0.8 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
54/100
Moderate debt risk (54/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.0x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 2.8x — manageable.
Leverage: 69/100 | Debt Service: 51/100 | Quality: 99/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%18.1
ROIC (%18.1) slightly exceeds cost of capital (0.8 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %17.3
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
431.50
DCF modeli 431.50 target value produced — compared to current price %132.3 undervalued.
Current price: 185.75
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.6x
vs 5.9x
Sector mediannın %63 above — expensive
EV/EBITDA
3.9x
vs 3.6x
Compared to sector %7 higher EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%18.1
vs %17.3 WACC
ROIC 0.8 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%6.0
vs %41.1 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %6.0
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
MTSS — Participation Finance Compliance
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.