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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
42/100
Dalio Risk ?
62/100
Piotroski ?
3/9
Weak
Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2); Önceki yıl borç/varlık verisi yok → kaldıraç azalması kontrol edilemedi (C5); Current period current ratio missing (C6); Previous year data missing → margin comparison unavailable (C8); current assets data missing → turnover calculation unavailable (C9)
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
72%
Valuation
Potential?
-1.5%
ROIC ?
7.9%
DCF Value ?
453.60
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
3821
2011-06-24 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%34.2
VaR 95% ?
%3.21
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.68
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.68
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%18.7
11.11.2025 → 31.12.2025
Skewness ?
-0.01
Parametrik%3.21
Historik%3.37
Cornish-Fisher%3.17
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Strong Uptrend
Price (387.00), TRAMA-99 line's %16.3 above. Strong uptrend continues. Technical momentum positive.
Price:: 387.0
TRAMA: 332.8123
Difference: %+16.3
Profitability
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%17.2
ROE %17.2 — moderate return on equity.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%3.2
TTM Free Cash Flow is %3.2'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.8x
Sector: 24.5x
F/K 26.8x — sector median's (24.5x) %9 above. Slight premium.
P/B Ratio
6.34x
Sector: 3.56x
PD/DD 6.34x — sector median's %78 above. Expensive book value.
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
Sector: 13.9x
EV/EBITDA 13.8x — sector median (13.9x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.32x
Current ratio 1.32x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.4x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
2.00x
Borç/Özkaynak 2.00x — high leverage. Sensitive to debt cycle changes.
Interest Coverage
7.9x
Interest coverage 7.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-0.8
Revenue YoY %-0.8 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+313.4
Net profit YoY %313.4 increased (2025/12) — extraordinary profit growth.
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
53/100
Moderate robustness (53/100). Valuation and risk criteria give mixed signals. Detailed review recommended.
Moderate
Potential
-1.5%
Minus %1.5 expected value (380.10) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %72.
Components: PE target: 441.34 | P/B target: 228.47 | EV/EBITDA target: 390.36 | DCF target: 453.60
Damodaran Valuation
42/100
Low Damodaran score (42/100). DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
62/100
Moderate debt risk (62/100). Interest coverage ratio 7.9x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 3.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 58/100 | Debt Service: 83/100 | Quality: 73/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%7.9
ROIC (%7.9) slightly exceeds cost of capital (0.5 puan) aşıyor.
WACC: %7.4
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
453.60
DCF (453.60) near current price (%+17.5) near — in fair value zone.
Current price: 385.95
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Weak Piotroski (3/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met. Note: Previous period ROA data missing (C1 delta-ROA); Total assets data missing → ROA cannot be calculated (C2)
Weak
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
26.8x
vs 24.5x
Sector mediannın %9 above — expensive
P/B Ratio
6.34x
vs 3.56x
Compared to sector %78 more expensive (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
vs 13.9x
Compared to sector %1 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%7.9
vs %7.4 WACC
ROIC 0.5 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%2.2
vs %7.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %2.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.