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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
45/100
Dalio Risk ?
46/100
Piotroski ?
4/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Negatif HBK
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.0085 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
Active Metric?
2/4
Confidence?
51%
Valuation
Potential?
+60.8%
ROIC ?
1.7%
Debt Cycle?
Contraction
Data
Data ?
9725
1988-01-26 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%45.6
VaR 95% ?
%4.78
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%6.74
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%6.10
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%43.9
24.09.2025 → 11.06.2026
Skewness ?
0.25
Parametrik%4.78
Historik%4.65
Cornish-Fisher%4.46
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Uptrend
Price (25.78), TRAMA-99 line's %8.7 above. Uptrend ongoing; monitor for TRAMA approach for trend change.
Price:: 25.78
TRAMA: 23.7259
Difference: %+8.7
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-9.7
Net profit margin %-9.7 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -1.1 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-5.5
ROE %-5.5 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%2.4
EBITDA margin %2.4 — low but positive.
Gross Profit Margin
%7.6
Gross profit per revenue %7.6. Evaluate relative to sector.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%-7.7
TTM Free Cash Flow is %-7.7'i. Negative FCF — company consuming cash.
Valuation
P/B Ratio
0.71x
Sector: 3.89x
PD/DD 0.71x — sector median's (3.89x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Sector: 16.4x
EV/EBITDA 11.9x — sector median (16.4x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.34x
Current ratio 1.34x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.2x
Net Borç/EBITDA 5.2x — excessive leverage. Fragile debt profile.
Debt / Equity
0.53x
Borç/Özkaynak 0.53x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
4.9x
Interest coverage 4.9x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-6.0
Revenue YoY %-6.0 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-166.4
Net profit YoY %-166.4 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 266.8M). Weakest quarter: Q4 (Oct-Dec) (avg. profit -175.2M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
56/100
Good robustness (56/100). The company shows a generally balanced financial profile; some areas have room for improvement.
Strong
Potential
+60.8%
Plus %60.8 expected value (40.97) vs current price comparison. 2/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %51.
Components: P/B target: 76.44 | EV/EBITDA target: 35.28
Damodaran Valuation
45/100
Low Damodaran score (45/100). ROIC (%1.7) below cost of capital. DCF analysis does not support current price.
Weak
Dalio Risk Analysis
46/100
High debt risk (46/100). Interest coverage ratio 4.9x — acceptable. Borç/EBITDA 5.2x — high debt burden.
Leverage: 61/100 | Debt Service: 77/100 | Quality: 31/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%1.7
ROIC (%1.7) cost of capitaln (8.0%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.0
Debt Cycle Phase
Contraction
High debt service + falling revenues. Balance sheet under pressure.
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Weak Piotroski (4/9). Many balance sheet quality criteria not met.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Company is loss-making (EPS = -2.0085 TL) — Graham formula requires positive earnings
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/B Ratio
0.71x
vs 3.89x
Compared to sector %82 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
vs 16.4x
Compared to sector %28 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%1.7
vs %8.0 WACC
ROIC 6.3 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%-5.2
vs %9.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %-5.2
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
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■ 13G pasif
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.