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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
61/100
Dalio Risk ?
61/100
Piotroski ?
5/9
Neutral
Graham ?
$15.3
Makul
Active Metric?
4/4
Confidence?
75%
Valuation
Potential?
+98.6%
ROIC ?
6.4%
DCF Value ?
37.55
Debt Cycle?
Geç Genişleme
Data
Data ?
12658
1976-06-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Yüksek
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%38.8
VaR 95% ?
%4.08
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%5.75
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%5.37
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%40.6
08.01.2026 → 06.07.2026
Skewness ?
-4.07
Parametrik%4.08
Historik%3.06
Cornish-Fisher%4.11
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (14.64), TRAMA-99 line (15.37) at close levels (%-4.8). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 14.64
TRAMA: 15.3701
Difference: %-4.8
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%-1.6
Net profit margin %-1.6 — loss period. Compared to previous quarter -8.7 point decrease.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%20.8
ROE %20.8 — high return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%5.8
EBITDA margin %5.8 — moderate operational efficiency.
Gross Profit Margin
%48.2
Gross profit per revenue %48.2. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%7.9
TTM Free Cash Flow is %7.9'i. Moderate FCF — capex constraining operational profit.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.8x
Sector: 29.6x
F/K 9.8x — sector median's (29.6x) %67 below. Attractive for value investing.
P/B Ratio
2.09x
Sector: 4.58x
PD/DD 2.09x — sector median's (4.58x) çok below. Defter değerine göre undervalued.
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
Sector: 15.6x
EV/EBITDA 8.0x — sector median's (15.6x) %49 below. EBITDA’ya göre undervalued.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.90x
Current ratio 1.90x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.4x
Net Borç/EBITDA 3.4x — high debt burden. Borç servisi baskı oluşturuyor.
Debt / Equity
1.37x
Borç/Özkaynak 1.37x — moderate financial leverage.
Interest Coverage
6.5x
Interest coverage 6.5x — interest obligations comfortably covered.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%+10.5
Revenue YoY %10.5 grew — healthy growth rate.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%-134.1
Net profit YoY %-134.1 declined (2026/6) — serious profit erosion.
Seasonality Analysis
Q3 (Tem-Eyl)
Historically strongest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 325.4M). Weakest quarter: Q1 (Jan-Mar) (avg. profit 16.4M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
72/100
Very strong robustness score (72/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+98.6%
Plus %98.6 expected value (29.01) vs current price comparison. 4/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %75.
Components: PE target: 34.60 | P/B target: 35.00 | EV/EBITDA target: 28.70 | DCF target: 37.55
Damodaran Valuation
61/100
Moderate Damodaran score (61/100). ROIC (%6.4) – WACC (%8.1) farkı -1.6 baz puan. Value creation capacity limited.
Moderate
Dalio Risk Analysis
61/100
Moderate debt risk (61/100). Interest coverage ratio 6.5x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 3.4x — manageable.
Leverage: 43/100 | Debt Service: 98/100 | Quality: 72/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%6.4
ROIC (%6.4) cost of capitaln (8.1%) below → destroying value.
WACC: %8.1
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
37.55
DCF modeli 37.55 target value produced — compared to current price %157.0 undervalued.
Current price: 14.61
Debt Cycle Phase
Geç Genişleme
Debt cycle phase: Geç Genişleme
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Moderate Piotroski (5/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
$15.3
Graham value ($15.3) near current price (%+4.7). In fair price zone.
Reasonable
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
9.8x
vs 29.6x
Sector mediannın %67 below — cheap
P/B Ratio
2.09x
vs 4.58x
Compared to sector %54 cheaper (by book value)
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
vs 15.6x
Compared to sector %49 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%6.4
vs %8.1 WACC
ROIC 1.6 baz puan cost of capitaln altında
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%7.8
vs %14.6 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %7.8
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
▲ içeriden alım ·
▼ içeriden satım ·
★ katalizör (haber-sezgisel) ·
■ 13D aktivist ·
■ 13G pasif
— SEC Form 4 ~2 gün gecikmeli, yalnız yönetici/direktör/%10+ sahip; katalizör = haber-sezgisel; 13D/G = %5+ pay bildirimi ~5 iş günü gecikmeli.
İçeriden Alım-Satım Akışı
Kim aldı, kim sattı, ne kadar
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.