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Analysis Scores
Damodaran ?
75/100
Dalio Risk ?
74/100
Piotroski ?
6/9
Neutral
Graham ?
Veri Yetersiz
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
Active Metric?
3/4
Confidence?
74%
Valuation
Potential?
+54.5%
ROIC ?
39.4%
DCF Value ?
153.38
Debt Cycle?
Early Expansion
Data
Data ?
11712
1980-03-17 → 2026-09-03
Risk Analysis (VaR)
Orta
252 days
Annual Volatility ?
%33.9
VaR 95% ?
%3.49
daily max loss
VaR 99% ?
%4.95
daily max loss
CVaR 95% ?
%4.35
expected loss (tail)
Max Drawdown ?
%24.7
10.02.2026 → 30.03.2026
Skewness ?
0.32
Parametrik%3.49
Historik%2.94
Cornish-Fisher%3.07
Return Distribution
Fundamental & Technical Analysis
TRAMA-99 Trend — Near TRAMA
Price (70.94), TRAMA-99 line (70.92) at close levels (%+0.0). Important decision zone — breakout direction will determine the trend.
Price:: 70.94
TRAMA: 70.9197
Difference: %+0.0
Profitability
Net Profit Margin
%16.0
Net profit margin %16.0 — at healthy level. Compared to previous quarter +4.9 point increase.
ROE – Özkaynak Getirisi (TTM)
%-291.1
ROE %-291.1 — negative return on equity.
EBITDA Margin
%23.5
EBITDA margin %23.5 — good operational performance.
Gross Profit Margin
%43.6
Gross profit per revenue %43.6. Strong pricing power.
Free Cash Flow Margin (TTM)
%14.8
TTM Free Cash Flow is %14.8'i. Strong FCF generation — profit quality is high.
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.9x
Sector: 27.7x
F/K 15.9x — sector median's (27.7x) %43 below. Attractive for value investing.
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Sector: 16.3x
EV/EBITDA 12.7x — sector median (16.3x) in line.
Indebtedness
Current Ratio
1.86x
Current ratio 1.86x — can comfortably cover short-term debts.
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Net Borç/EBITDA 2.6x — manageable debt level.
Debt / Equity
-9.54x
Low leverage — majority of assets financed by equity.
Interest Coverage
13.0x
Interest coverage 13.0x — very wide margin for paying interest expenses.
Growth
Revenue Growth (YoY)
%-2.9
Revenue YoY %-2.9 declined — slight decrease, monitor closely.
Net Profit Growth (YoY)
%+17.8
Net profit YoY %17.8 increased — positive but moderate growth.
Seasonality Analysis
Q2 (Nis-Haz)
Historically strongest quarter: Q2 (Apr-Jun) (avg. profit 282.0M). Weakest quarter: Q3 (Jul-Sep) (avg. profit 178.0M).
Score Explanations
Lothien Robustness
74/100
Very strong robustness score (74/100). Damodaran valuation, Dalio risk analysis and balance sheet quality criteria are largely met.
Very Strong
Potential
+54.5%
Plus %54.5 expected value (110.28) vs current price comparison. 3/4 valuation models give 'BUY' signal. Model confidence %74.
Components: PE target: 131.34 | EV/EBITDA target: 91.54 | DCF target: 153.38
Damodaran Valuation
75/100
Strong Damodaran valuation (75/100). ROIC (%39.4) exceeds cost of capital, company creates value.
Strong
Dalio Risk Analysis
74/100
Low debt risk (74/100). Interest coverage ratio 13.0x — strong. Borç/EBITDA 2.6x — manageable.
Leverage: 67/100 | Debt Service: 97/100 | Quality: 97/100
ROIC – Sermaye Getirisi
%39.4
ROIC (%39.4) cost of capital 30.7 puan aşıyor → company creates value.
WACC: %8.7
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
153.38
DCF modeli 153.38 target value produced — compared to current price %114.9 undervalued.
Current price: 71.36
Debt Cycle Phase
Early Expansion
Debt decreasing, growth gaining momentum. Company in balance sheet cleanup phase.
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
Moderate Piotroski (6/9). Some balance sheet criteria met, some missing.
Neutral
Graham Intrinsic Value
—
Özkaynaklar negatif veya sıfır — Graham formülü pozitif defter değeri gerektirir
⚖️ Sector Comparison
P/E Ratio
15.9x
vs 27.7x
Sector mediannın %43 below — cheap
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
vs 16.3x
Compared to sector %22 lower EV/EBITDA
ROIC vs WACC
%39.4
vs %8.7 WACC
ROIC 30.7 baz puan exceeds cost of capital
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
%11.6
vs %17.5 EBITDA margin
TTM net profit margin %11.6
Charts
Indicators
BB deviation
?
RSI thresholds
?
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▼ içeriden satım ·
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The Lothien health scores and analyses on this page are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.